CW: Now That Dawn's Gone, Will 'Gossip Girl' Go Too?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 4th, 2011

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through October 2, 2011):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.66
Gossip Girl  :| :| :| 0.77
Supernatural (F) :) :) :) :) 0.82
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.87
90210 :| :| :| 0.87
Ringer :) :) :) :) 1.09
The Secret Circle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Vampire Diaries  :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
One Tree Hill  final season

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Dawn Ostroff, the CW network's former chief, left the network this spring. If any show is identified as "Dawn's baby" by fans (some angry ones) it's Gossip Girl. It was the first of her "We're going after the women 18-34 demo" shows that's still on the schedule. After two weeks (although the second week's results aren't in the table above), it's become the CW's lowest rated non-Friday scripted show. Combine that with a new CW president who may not share Dawn's affinity for the youthful female demo, and the time may have come for Gossip Girl to go.

Nikita's Friday ratings make it the lowest rated scripted show on the network, but depending on the "Friday factor" adjustment you might make it still looks like its in the lower end of the toss up range.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
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