ABC: Mayday! ‘Pan Am’ Descends Toward Cancellation
Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through October 9, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Body Of Proof||:cry: :cry:||0.67|
|Private Practice||:| :| :|||0.82|
|Pan Am||:cry: :cry:||0.85|
|Revenge||:) :) :) :)||0.94|
|The Middle||:) :) :) :)||0.96|
|Castle||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||0.98|
|Happy Endings||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||0.99|
|Desperate Housewives||final season||1.00|
|Suburgatory||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.07|
|Grey’s Anatomy||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.20|
|Modern Family||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.95|
|Last Man Standing||not premiered|
|Man Up||not premiered|
|Once Upon A Time||not premiered|
|Cougar Town||not premiered|
After starting reasonably well, Pan Am ratings fell 16% in its second episode, and then fell 27% in its third episode and was ABC’s second lowest rated scripted show last week (ahead of only Charlie’s Angels). That trend is most definitely not its friend. Perhaps ABC forgot that with all the awards that period dramas like Mad Men and Boardwalk Empire have shoveled in, their ratings are terrible. Because the Index is a season average, shows like Pan Am that have ratings which are changing quickly week to week tend to temporarily have a higher Index than their most recent relative ratings would otherwise indicate.
Body of Proof ‘s future looks bleak. It’s not dead yet, but it needs to pick up the ratings pace, and hope some other ABC shows tank, if it wants to make it to season 3.
Charlie’s Angels is a dead show airing. Enjoy it while you can. You may see all 13 episodes that were ordered, or you may not. 10/14 Update: Charlie’s Angels has been canceled.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.