CW: ‘Ringer’s’ Drop; A Temporary Blip or The Beginning Of The End?
Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCwShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through October 9, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Nikita (F)||:| :| :|||0.65|
|Gossip Girl||:| :| :|||0.80|
|Supernatural (F)||:) :) :) :)||0.84|
|90210||:| :| :|||0.88|
|Hart Of Dixie||:) :) :) :)||0.91|
|Ringer||:| :| :|||1.03|
|The Secret Circle||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.14|
|Vampire Diaries||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.48|
|One Tree Hill||final season|
Ringer got off to a reasonably good start for the CW, and then seemed to stabilize between week 2 and 3 at a 0.9 adults 18-49 rating. On today’s CW that’s a ratings winner! Then, just as fans started breathing easily, it dropped by 33% last week to just a 0.6 adults 18-49 rating, CW’s lowest rated non-Friday scripted show. I don’t think I’ll have fans reach for the Pepto Bismol just yet though. A single week’s ratings can be an anomaly, but if it stays there (and the rest of the CW shows stay about where they were last week, a big if), Sarah Michelle Gellar will be looking for another job by the end of this season. Maybe Buffy II?
Gossip Girl and 90210 are currently mired in the middle of the CW’s ratings and could go either way at the end of the season.
Nikita’s ratings continue to drift lower. It’s on the lower edge of the “toss up” range, even given a “Friday fudge factor” in comparing it with the rest of the CW shows.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.