FOX: Will ‘Fringe’ Go The Way Of ‘Dollhouse’ Or ”Til Death’? (Poll)
Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewFOXShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through October 9, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Fringe (F)||:| :| :|||0.42|
|The Cleveland Show||renewed||0.89|
|Raising Hope||:) :) :) :)||0.92|
|Terra Nova||:) :) :) :)||0.97|
|Glee||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.17|
|House||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.22|
|New Girl||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.41|
|Allen Gregory||not premiered|
|Breaking In||not premiered|
|I Hate My Teenage Daughter||not premiered|
Fringe has a full order of 22 episodes for this, its fourth season, but its ratings during the past two weeks must have the execs at Fox holding their collective noses no matter how cheaply they got it from Warner Brothers.
What might become of the rest of the season four episodes of Fringe?
Let’s look at two examples from Fox’s not too distant past.
- Renewed for a second season after weak rookie ratings Dollhouse ratings plumbed new depths early in the 2009-10 season and it was yanked off the Fox schedule prior to November sweeps. It returned for double episode burn offs during December and January before slipping into its fans memories.
- After a weak sophomore season in 2007-8, ‘Til Death was renewed for a third season in 2008-9 during which its terrible ratings caused it to be pulled from Fox’s schedule in early October, never to return that season. Amazingly, it was renewed yet again for a fourth season in 2009-10, almost certainly because Sony gave it away to generate episodes for syndication (I don’t recall commenters crying “Fox executives love it!” or “It has great DVR numbers!”), and during 2009-10 it aired at somewhat random times (and in somewhat random episode order) during the season (but rarely during sweeps!) bleeding into summer 2010 after which it failed to rise from the dead yet again (81 episodes in the can).
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.