CW: 'Hart Of Dixie', Part Of The Pack? Or Slipping Behind It?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 18th, 2011

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through October 16, 2011):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.64
Gossip Girl  :| :| :| 0.78
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.86
Supernatural (F) :) :) :) :) 0.88
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.91
Ringer :) :) :) :) 1.01
The Secret Circle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Vampire Diaries  :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.55

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There was lots of hubbub last week when the CW signed a streaming deal for its shows with Netflix. Desperate fans figured that the reported pipeline of money might save their shows. That's unlikely.

Just like corporate parent CBS, the CW uses its air to market and warehouse shows produced ( all by CBS and Warner Brothers) on their way to syndication and DVD sales. But the CW has only 10 hours of air in which to do the warehousing (unlike CBS's 22). If a show doesn't demonstrate the potential for future sales, it's gone.

In past seasons, the majority of CW shows have had ratings clustered together in a pack of "likely to be renewed" shows. In this early part of the season, shows are still jockeying for position, and Hart Of Dixie's drop last week to just a 0.6 adults 18-49 rating might be the beginning of a move to drop back behind the pack (which seems to be forming in the 0.7-0.8 range. Or it might be a temporary blip. We'll have to wait and see.

Ringer ratings recovered a bit last week from its ratings plunge two weeks ago. Enough so that it could be taken out of the intensive care ward.

Gossip Girl ratings are still looking weak. This may be its final season.

Nikita's ratings are staying low. Since its a Friday show, and the CW threshold for Friday shows is hazy at best, crazy fans will keep hope alive all season long. But that's the way we like it. Keep hope alive, and please refresh the page.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
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