FOX: 'Terra Nova' Disappointing? So What?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 18th, 2011

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through October 16, 2011):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) :| :| :| 0.42
American Dad  renewed 0.92
The Cleveland Show  renewed 0.92
Terra Nova :) :) :) :) 0.94
Raising Hope :) :) :) :) 0.96
House :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
The Simpsons  renewed 1.12
Glee  :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.22
Family Guy  renewed 1.23
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.47

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It's been widely reported that the pilot for Terra Nova cost Fox a squinty jillion dollars, and that the per episode cost is higher than that of the typical primetime TV broadcast drama.

The ranks of commenters (and TV media "experts") noting that Fox must be "disappointed" with its ratings are legion.

But to those of us not participating in the Fox corporate profit participation pool, and instead either predicting (me) or caring about the show's likelihood of renewal (its fans) our attitude about that possible "disappointment" should be the same.

So what?

Would Fox have liked Terra Nova to have better ratings? Of course they would. But they'd like all their shows to have better ratings.

Until last week's of baseball disruptions, Terra Nova ratings were almost exactly the average for all of Fox's scripted shows. If Terra Nova ratings can hold at that average, the show's going to get renewed. Disappointment notwithstanding.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
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