CW: A Falling Tide Lowers All Boats, But Could Keep 'Nikita' & 'Gossip Girl' From Being Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 1st, 2011

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through October 30, 2011):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.67
Gossip Girl  :| :| :| 0.78
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.85
Supernatural (F) :) :) :) :) 0.88
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.92
Ringer :) :) :) :) 1.00
The Secret Circle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Vampire Diaries  :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60

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If you've been following the network ratings so far this season, you know that the CW ratings have been absolutely crushed, down 22% among adults 18-49 through the first six weeks of the season. CBS and Warner Brothers are in full "save the network" mode, doing streaming deals with Hulu and Netflix. And they've even got CBS execs tweeting positively about CW show ratings this season.

But what does all that mean for the fans of individual CW shows? Since I don't think that the CW is in any chance of simply going "poof" at the end of this season, as long as your favorite show can keep its ratings slide roughly in line with the general plummet going on at the CW, then it's got at least a fighting chance to survive.

While the CW will likely cancel 2-3 shows to make room for new ones next Fall, I wouldn't be shocked, based on results through the first six weeks, to see any individual show in their line up renewed, even Nikita and Gossip Girl which are the most at risk at this point.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
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