Bubble Watch: 'Terra Nova,' 'House' Downgraded to the Bubble; 'Grimm' Still on the Bubble

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch seeks to prognosticate on what will happen by May.  The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Terra Nova, House Downgraded - Now on the Bubble

Yes it was Halloween, and yes the baseball scheduling wreaked havoc on Fox shows, but I've still downgraded Terra Nova and House to the bubble anyway. Is that fair? Maybe not, but the goal of Bubble Watch isn't to be fair, it's to predict what happens by/in May and I think those decisions could go either way.

Even if Terra Nova bounces back a bit it's reportedly a very expensive show. OK ratings + very expensive isn't a great combo. House's ratings are already OK and definitely more OK than Terra Nova's, but it's in its eighth season and expensive as a result. I can definitely see House being renewed for a ninth season, but with only average ratings renewal isn't a slam dunk.

Once Upon A Time Upgraded, Grimm Still on the Bubble

While predicting anything after only two episodes is folly (which is why after only one episode, both shows were on the bubble last week), I've upgraded Once Upon A Time to likely renewal.  For now, Grimm is still on the bubble though.  Don't take that to mean anything about Grimm's premiere or it's second episode, which particularly for NBC, were great.

The 14% drop in its adults 18-49 rating its second week was not a bad sign, and is pretty typical as far as drops from premieres go (and better than many).  But despite being on Fridays (and on NBC to boot), on an absolute ratings basis, Grimm has less wiggle room than Once Upon A Time, i.e.Once Upon A Time can fall a full ratings point (or more) and still be renewed and Grimm can't.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode are in the table below.

Update: whoops, I forgot to add Fox's Allen Gregory to the table below, it'll be there next week, but I've got it as likely to be canceled.

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