FOX: ‘Terra Nova’ Now A Toss Up To Be Canceled Or Renewed
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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through November 6, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Fringe (F)||:| :| :|||0.44|
|Allen Gregory||:cry: :cry:||0.76|
|The Cleveland Show||renewed||0.91|
|Terra Nova||:| :| :|||0.92|
|Raising Hope||:) :) :) :)||0.96|
|House||:) :) :) :)||1.03|
|Bones||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.11|
|Glee||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.20|
|New Girl||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.45|
The combination of a baseball layoff and Halloween hammered Terra Nova ratings last week. While last night’s preliminary ratings (not yet in the calculations above) recovered somewhat it was still below FOX’s recent scripted show average ratings enough to put it into the “toss up” range. Since only 13 episodes were slated for this season, and I’d be virtually certain all those air, there will be no “back 9” pick up to signal early approval. Fans will likely be on pins and needles until May.
Last week, I cautioned fans not to assume Allen Gregory would be canceled after just a single week. After two weeks, you can assume away. It’s more likely to be canceled than renewed.
Is this the last year for House? Only Hugh Laurie and the beancounters at FOX know for sure. Robert’s put the show on the bubble because of cost issues. My assumption (not always correct) is that for decently rated shows (as House remains) the cost issues will get worked out. What Mr. Laurie wants to do isn’t something I try and predict. If he wants to quit, of course the show is done. Robert also notes that House’s creator is meeting with Fox and NBC Universal soon to figure out whether he needs to write towards a series finale this season. So others may know soon what’s coming but will we?
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.