ABC: When ‘Happy Endings’ Gets Renewed, Expect Retentionista Heads To Explode
Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through November 13, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Body Of Proof||:cry: :cry:||0.67|
|Man Up||:cry: :cry:||0.69|
|Pan Am||:cry: :cry:||0.72|
|Private Practice||:| :| :|||0.86|
|Castle||:) :) :) :)||0.91|
|Revenge||:) :) :) :)||0.96|
|Desperate Housewives||final season||1.03|
|The Middle||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.03|
|Last Man Standing||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.04|
|Happy Endings||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.10|
|Suburgatory||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.11|
|Grey’s Anatomy||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.28|
|Once Upon A Time||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.35|
|Modern Family||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||2.02|
Retentionistas love to note the ratings loss from one show to another and point to that number as being indicative of the second show’s future prospects. Sadly for them, that method has no demonstrated ability to predict much of anything.
ABC’s Happy Endings follows ABC’s biggest hit Modern Family. Its ratings are only about 55% of Modern Family’s. That makes the retentionistas squeal with predictions of its doom because it loses 45% of MF’s ratings.
The problem for the retentionistas is that Happy Endings ratings are also 110% of the ABC scripted show average. That number all but guarantees the show will be renewed, and that retentionistas will once again be “surprised”. However, being “surprised” seems to be the normal operating status for them.
Man Up!, Pan Am and Body Of Proof are all likely to be canceled by the end of the season. Enjoy them while you can.
Private Practice looks likely to play the same cat and mouse game with potential cancellation as did Brothers & Sisters last year. Brothers & Sisters was reportedly almost saved for another final season, but the deal fell through. We’ll have to wait and see if a similar “final season” deal will be put together for Private Practice.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.