FOX: 'Bones' A Toss-up For Renewal? Not Yet!

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 15th, 2011

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through November 13, 2011):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) :| :| :| 0.44
Allen Gregory :cry: :cry: 0.75
American Dad  renewed 0.91
The Cleveland Show  renewed 0.93
Terra Nova :| :| :| 0.93
Raising Hope :) :) :) :) 0.93
Bones  :) :) :) :) 1.02
House :) :) :) :) 1.04
Family Guy  renewed 1.17
Glee  :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
The Simpsons  renewed 1.24
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43

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Robert caused a bit of a stir when he placed Bones on the bubble recently.

It's hard to argue with his conclusion that an aging, likely expensive, show with average-ish ratings isn't assured of renewal. It's not. Still, as with House, my guess is, and history seems to support, that shows with average-ish ratings that have a cost problem are usually, but not always, renewed. That's why at its current ratings level, I still make Bones more likely to be renewed than canceled.

Robert also has Fringe as likely to be canceled. The ratings say he's right, but the ratings said he (and I) were right last year too, and Warner Brothers likely gave the show away to Fox to get a fourth season for syndication. Will Warner Brothers cut the price again for a fifth season? Would Fox want it even if they did? The answers to both questions is likely no, but in this case I am once bitten, twice shy, and will move the show no lower than a "toss up" for renewal next season.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
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