NBC: How Much Lower Can ‘Grimm’ Ratings Go Before Fans Need To Worry?
Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewNbcShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through November 13, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Chuck (F)||final season||0.48|
|The Playboy Club||canceled||0.67|
|Parks & Recreation||1.04|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.11|
|Up All Night||awaiting new timeslot ratings||1.18|
|Whitney||awaiting new timeslot ratings||1.21|
On the catastrophy that is NBC primetime, Grimm early ratings have been somewhat surprising. Sadly for fans, those ratings have been trending downward.
- Premiere: 2.1 adults 18-49 rating. Wow! A great rating for any scripted show on NBC, and against World Series game 7! On a Friday!
- 2nd episode: 1.8 adults 18-49 rating. A decent rating for a scripted series on NBC, and a great one for a Friday!
- 3rd episode: 1.6 adults 18-49 rating. A good rating for Friday! Hey, this is NBC we’re taking about!
When do fans start to worry?
Because scripted drama renewals for Friday shows are few and far between it’s difficult to draw a bright line like we can on other days, but my guess is that if NBC’s other scripted shows maintain their current ratings (a big if), Grimm could go as low as a 1.4 rating on Friday and still have a “toss up” chance at a renewal. Below that rating though, chances will drop quickly below a “toss up”. The cancellation bear should not yet worry the show’s fans.
Community fans may have freaked out when it wasn’t on the network’s mid-season schedule released yesterday. It’s certainly not good news for the show, but NBC insists that the show will return an at unspecified future date, and Sony has given sitcoms away to get a fourth season before, and I think they may do it again, and so the show will drop no lower than a “toss up” for renewal for next season.
Up All Night and Whitney will be relocated in the NBC schedule starting in mid-season. Their ratings in their new timeslots will be far more relevant to their renewal chances than their ratings this Fall (call it the Outsourced lesson), and so their predictions are suspended until then. We’ll have to wait until January to reassess their chances.
Harry’s Law is getting a new timeslot too, but its Fall ratings were terrible, and unless they stage a dramatic turnaround on Sundays, the show is 100% certain to be canceled.
With its absence from the mid-season schedule, and no notice of additional episodes ordered, NBC has defacto canceled Prime Suspect. Fans can wail “There’s been no announcement!”, and there likely never will be. NBC is said to be “considering our options” with the show. Similarly, I am considering my options with various supermodels.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- 😐😐 :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.