Bubble Watch: 'Once Upon a Time,' 'Grimm' Upgraded; Should 'The Mentalist' Be on the Bubble?

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch seeks to prognosticate on what will happen by May.  The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

'Grimm' Upgraded

After stabilizing on Friday at a 1.6 adults 18-49 rating, I’ve upgraded Grimm to “likely to be renewed.” If the ratings don’t slide, it will stay there.

'Once Upon A Time' Upgraded

I upgraded Once Upon A Time in the table below from "likely" to "certain" renewal, but initially forgot to call it out in the text. At this point, barring disaster its renewal for a second season is inevitable.

Should 'The Mentalist' Be on The Bubble?

I've received a few questions about why The Mentalist isn't on the bubble. It's a fair question since The Mentalist is now performing at only around 80% of CBS’s scripted average. 

The Mentalist is currently in its fourth season and will have enough episodes for stripped syndication by the end of this season (assuming a full season). That TNT reportedly paid $2 million per episode for the syndication rights doesn’t do CBS any good since Warner Bros produces the show. Plus the $2 million is a bookkeeping entry since both TNT and Warner Bros being siblings of the same corporate parent, Time Warner.

But I don't see The Mentalist as being a toss-up for renewal. It gets some slack for being a 10pm show. It's CBS's second-best 10pm performer trailing only Hawaii Five-0. And 'Five-0' has a much better lead-in.  Short of more ratings attrition or CBS deciding to scale way back on scripted programming at 10pm, The Mentalist is likely to be renewed.

Other Adjustments

Several minor changes in the table to account for recent mid-season schedule announcements and resulting outcomes. Whitney and Up All Night are now grouped in the bubble, but I’ve noted that I’m waiting for new time slot ratings. Hopefully that will satisfy the comment lawyers. I’ve also grouped Man Up! and Pan Am with the canceled shows though for this week I’m noting them as “effectively canceled.” Next week I’ll just mark them canceled and live with any “but ABC says Pan Am isn’t technically canceled!” fallout in the comments.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

-
Click here for previous Bubble Watch posts.