Bubble Watch: 'Once Upon a Time,' 'Grimm' Upgraded; Should 'The Mentalist' Be on the Bubble?

Categories: Bubble Watch

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November 20th, 2011

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch seeks to prognosticate on what will happen by May.  The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

'Grimm' Upgraded

After stabilizing on Friday at a 1.6 adults 18-49 rating, I’ve upgraded Grimm to “likely to be renewed.” If the ratings don’t slide, it will stay there.

'Once Upon A Time' Upgraded

I upgraded Once Upon A Time in the table below from "likely" to "certain" renewal, but initially forgot to call it out in the text. At this point, barring disaster its renewal for a second season is inevitable.

Should 'The Mentalist' Be on The Bubble?

I've received a few questions about why The Mentalist isn't on the bubble. It's a fair question since The Mentalist is now performing at only around 80% of CBS’s scripted average. 

The Mentalist is currently in its fourth season and will have enough episodes for stripped syndication by the end of this season (assuming a full season). That TNT reportedly paid $2 million per episode for the syndication rights doesn’t do CBS any good since Warner Bros produces the show. Plus the $2 million is a bookkeeping entry since both TNT and Warner Bros being siblings of the same corporate parent, Time Warner.

But I don't see The Mentalist as being a toss-up for renewal. It gets some slack for being a 10pm show. It's CBS's second-best 10pm performer trailing only Hawaii Five-0. And 'Five-0' has a much better lead-in.  Short of more ratings attrition or CBS deciding to scale way back on scripted programming at 10pm, The Mentalist is likely to be renewed.

Other Adjustments

Several minor changes in the table to account for recent mid-season schedule announcements and resulting outcomes. Whitney and Up All Night are now grouped in the bubble, but I’ve noted that I’m waiting for new time slot ratings. Hopefully that will satisfy the comment lawyers. I’ve also grouped Man Up! and Pan Am with the canceled shows though for this week I’m noting them as “effectively canceled.” Next week I’ll just mark them canceled and live with any “but ABC says Pan Am isn’t technically canceled!” fallout in the comments.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
Charlie's Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Effectively Canceled
Pan Am ABC Effectively Canceled
How To Be A Gentleman CBS Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Body Of Proof ABC Likely Cancellation
Allen Gregory Fox Likely Cancellation
Fringe Fox Likely Cancellation
Private Practice ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Person Of Interest CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Unforgettable CBS On The Bubble
Bones Fox On The Bubble
House Fox On The Bubble
Terra Nova Fox On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Ringer CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC Waiting for New Time Slot Ratings
Whitney NBC Waiting for New Time Slot Ratings
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
The Good Wife CBS Likely Renewal
The Mentalist CBS Likely Renewal
90210' CW Likely Renewal
Supernatural CW Likely Renewal
The Secret Circle CW Likely Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Likely Renewal
Grimm NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Castle ABC Certain Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season

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