CBS: It’s Old v. New In The Battle For Renewal Among CBS Dramas
Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCBSShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through November 20, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|A Gifted Man (F)||:oops:||0.37|
|CSI:NY (F)||:| :| :|||0.51|
|Blue Bloods (F)||:) :) :) :)||0.57|
|The Good Wife||:| :| :|||0.62|
|CSI: Miami||:| :| :|||0.65|
|How To Be A Gentleman||canceled||0.74|
|Unforgettable||:| :| :|||0.75|
|The Mentalist||:) :) :) :)||0.79|
|Person Of Interest||:| :| :|||0.83|
|CSI||:| :| :|||0.84|
|Hawaii Five-0||:) :) :) :)||0.95|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.05|
|Rules of Engagement||:| :| :|||1.07|
|Criminal Minds||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.13|
|NCIS||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.23|
|Mike & Molly||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.26|
|How I Met Your Mother||renewed||1.35|
|2 Broke Girls||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.45|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.50|
|Two And A Half Men||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.89|
As I’ve noted before, CBS’s business model is heavily dependent on syndication revenues from the shows it produces (it has no ad supported cable networks to speak of like the rest of its broadcast network competition). With only one clear ratings loser this season (A Gifted Man which is 100% certain to be canceled), CBS will wrestle with the decision of whether to keep:
- New, and not particularly highly rated rookies like Unforgettable and Person Of Interest, or
- Old, poorly rated dramas, that are already syndicated, like the CSI’s.
My guess is that they’ll probably keep one rookie drama around from this relatively weak class (probably Person Of Interest, unless whatever they bring in the spring is really surprising), and get rid of Unforgettable and at least one of the oldsters. But it’s not inconceivable that they keep both Person Of Interest and Unforgettable and then two of the geriatrics will be shown the door.
What of veteran ratings laggard The Good Wife you say? My guess is that having suffered through three seasons of weak ratings, CBS will bite the bullet for four and hope their crack syndication salesforce can find somebody to unload it on.
Rules of Engagement has had its season order shortened for this season. While it has the ratings for renewal, CBS sitcom success may not leave it room in the schedule next season unless CBS expands its sitcom hours. For that reason, it’s now a “toss up” for renewal.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.