CW: Might The CW Nearly Clear The Decks For Next Season?
Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCwShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through November 20, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Nikita (F)||:| :| :|||0.70|
|Gossip Girl||:| :| :|||0.78|
|Hart Of Dixie||:| :| :|||0.84|
|Supernatural (F)||:) :) :) :)||0.91|
|90210||:) :) :) :)||0.92|
|Ringer||:) :) :) :)||0.98|
|The Secret Circle||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.11|
|Vampire Diaries||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.67|
Woe is The CW. Their adults 18-49 ratings are down 25% vs. last season. Because of an NFL Network scheduling quirk last week, they didn’t broadcast their regular Thursday line up, and therefore didn’t have a single scripted show do better than a 0.7 adults 18-49 rating. (I know that Supernatural’s 0.7 on Friday means likely renewal in the midst of this debacle, fans hold off!).
It seems like our comments are filled with fans arguing with each other over which CW shows are doing worse, hoping their favorite shows will be saved from the cancellation bear.
But what if, with some corporate parental money from CBS/WB, a new president (who’s unlikely to have been brought in to supervise a status quo decline), the CW clears its decks of all its scripted shows *except* The Vampire Diaries, Supernatural and The Secret Circle?
That would require the production and promotion of 5 new scripted shows (assuming Wednesday stays all reality or reality/repeat), a big reach for the CW, but not inconceivable for fans worrying about the worst for their shows.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.