CBS: Could A "10pm Factor" Save 'Unforgettable' From Being Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 29th, 2011

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through November 27, 2011):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
A Gifted Man (F) :oops: 0.37
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.51
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :) 0.56
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.62
CSI: Miami :| :| :| 0.65
Unforgettable :| :| :| 0.74
How To Be A Gentleman canceled 0.74
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.79
Person Of Interest :| :| :| 0.82
CSI :| :| :| 0.83
Hawaii Five-0 :) :) :) :) 0.93
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 1.06
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.21
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.34
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Big Bang Theory renewed 1.49
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.85

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We've known for quite some time that CBS will tolerate much lower ratings (~30%) from its Friday dramas than it will among its scripted shows on other nights, but will they now tolerate much lower ratings among their 10pm shows as well?

With cable shows and DVR viewing consuming ever more of the viewing time in the 10pm hour, broadcast drama 10pm ratings have weakened noticeably vs. their intra-network sibling competition earlier in the evening. In past years, I haven't tried to apply a "10pm factor" on shows in the last hour of primetime for prediction purposes, because predictions were quite accurate without it and because I like to keep things simple.

After this season, that may have to change. And for fans of Unforgettable they'd better hope that CBS is grading on some sort of 10pm curve, because that's all that's likely keeping the show from being likely to be canceled. The Mentalist, CSI:MIami and CSI are in similar situations, but syndication economics are significant factors in their renewals, not so with Unforgettable.

What of veteran ratings laggard The Good Wife? No "10pm factor" is going to save it, but my guess is that having suffered through three seasons of weak ratings, CBS will bite the bullet for four and hope their crack syndication salesforce can find somebody to unload it on.

Rules of Engagement has had its season order shortened for this season. While it has the ratings for renewal, CBS sitcom success may not leave it room in the schedule next season unless CBS expands its sitcom hours. For that reason, it's now a "toss up" for renewal.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
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