CW: In A Stew Of Low Ratings, ‘Nikita,’ ‘Gossip Girl,’ ‘Hart Of Dixie,’ ‘90210,’ & ‘Ringer’ Are All “Toss Ups” For Cancellation Or Renewal
Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCwShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through November 27, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Nikita (F)||:| :| :|||0.70|
|Gossip Girl||:| :| :|||0.79|
|Hart Of Dixie||:| :| :|||0.85|
|90210||:| :| :|||0.91|
|Supernatural (F)||:) :) :) :)||0.92|
|Ringer||:| :| :|||0.99|
|The Secret Circle||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.12|
|Vampire Diaries||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.69|
Last week I wondered whether the CW might nearly clear the deck and start with as many as five new dramas next fall. That’s still an extreme outcome, and I think they are unlikely to go that far.
However, ratings for all their scripted shows except Supernatural, The Secret Circle and The Vampire Diaries have dropped into the same, woeful, 0.6-0.7 adults 18-49 ratings stew in recent weeks, that while the season averages used by the Renew / Cancel Index above have yet to “catch up”, everything but those three shows is now a “toss up” for renewal or cancellation.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.