ABC: Should 'Once Upon A Time' Continued Ratings Declines Begin To Worry Fans?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 6th, 2011

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through December 4, 2011):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Charlie's Angels canceled 0.48
Man Up! canceled 0.66
Body Of Proof :cry: :cry: 0.67
Pan Am canceled 0.71
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.88
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.91
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.94
Last Man Standing :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Desperate Housewives final season 1.03
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.98

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To many (including me), ABC's Once Upon A Time was one of the initial ratings surprises of the season. It premiered with a strong 3.9 adults 18-49 rating, but its ratings have since fallen fairly consistently, hitting a series low 3.2 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday. [4.0, 3.9, 3.8, 3.8, 3.4, 3.2] That rating is still nicely above ABC's average for new scripted episodes this season (of ~2.9), and still predicts certain renewal, but the continuing ratings declines have to concern its fans. To pre-empt the question, the current "likely renewal" threshold (a moving target) for ABC scripted shows is a 2.5 adults 18-49 rating. Below that and its into the "toss up" category.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
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