CW: ‘Hart of Dixie’ Tries To Climb Out Of The Ratings Pit Towards Renewal
Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCwShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through December 4, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Nikita (F)||:| :| :|||0.70|
|Gossip Girl||:| :| :|||0.79|
|Hart Of Dixie||:) :) :) :)||0.89|
|Supernatural (F)||:) :) :) :)||0.92|
|90210||:| :| :|||0.93|
|Ringer||:| :| :|||0.97|
|The Secret Circle||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.14|
|Vampire Diaries||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.71|
Amongst the ratings woe on The CW this season, rookie Hart of Dixie’s last two weeks of a 0.9 and (prelminary) 0.8 adults 18-49 rating would make it a hit. Even though I typically don’t make predictive moves based on short term ratings swings, anything that moves a show above the 0.6/0.7 ratings floor for The CW deserves notice and, at least for now, the show is changed to More Likely To Be Renewed Than Canceled.
Note that beginning the first week in January I will restart each network’s Index to use only new episodes from 2012. That’s likely to have the most telling predictive effect on CW shows since many had big premiere numbers that are now a distant memory.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.