ABC: Only ‘Body Of Proof’ Is Likely To Be Canceled
Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through December 11, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Body Of Proof||:cry: :cry:||0.66|
|Private Practice||:) :) :) :)||0.88|
|Castle||:) :) :) :)||0.89|
|Revenge||:) :) :) :)||0.94|
|Last Man Standing||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.00|
|The Middle||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.03|
|Desperate Housewives||final season||1.04|
|Suburgatory||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.07|
|Happy Endings||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.09|
|Once Upon A Time||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.27|
|Grey’s Anatomy||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.30|
|Modern Family||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.97|
I looked a little more closely at more recent results (since 10/31) in with an eye towards potentially adjusting predictions as we near the mid-season mark. That produced a number of prediction changes for some of the networks, but not for ABC, which remains the only network with no current shows predicted as “toss ups” for renewal or cancellation.
Body of Proof remains the only show on ABC more likely to be canceled or renewed, and its ratings relative to the rest of ABC’s scripted shows have remained remarkably stable since the beginning of the season.
Once Upon A Time ratings declines continue. Its latest 2.9 adults 18-49 rating is still well within the “likely to be renewed” range, but where will the ratings stabilize?
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.