FOX: ‘Terra Nova,’ ‘Raising Hope’ Still “Toss Up’s” For Renewal Or Cancellation
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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through December 11, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Fringe (F)||:| :| :|||0.45|
|The Cleveland Show||renewed||0.85|
|I Hate My Teenage Daughter||:| :| :|||0.89|
|Terra Nova||:| :| :|||0.90|
|Raising Hope||:| :| :|||0.92|
|Bones||:) :) :) :)||1.00|
|House||:) :) :) :)||1.02|
|Glee||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.20|
|New Girl||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.41|
I looked a little more closely at more recent results (since 10/31) in with an eye towards potentially adjusting predictions as we near the mid-season mark. That produced a number of prediction changes for some of the networks, but not for Fox.
Terra Nova is still a “toss up” for renewal or cancellation. Since 10/31 it has averaged 87% of Fox’s scripted show average. Given no inside information about cost cutting, I always assume cost issues can be corrected. Raising Hope relative ratings since 10/31 have also been at 87% of Fox’s scripted show average.
And those who enjoy chiding at me for my cowardice over keeping Fringe a “toss up” may continue to do so. It’s ratings are terrible, but so were they last season. Warner Brothers gave the show away for a fourth season, and there’s some chance they’ll do it again.
And while it wouldn’s surprise me one bit to see I Hate My Teenaged Daughter ratings decline this week into the “likely to be canceled” range, a 2.1 adults 18-49 is still, for Fox, a “toss up”.
If Hugh Laurie wants to quit doing House, it will, of course, end. If he wants to come back, it will be back. I don’t try and predict his moves.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.