When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Several Adjustments this Week
Blame holiday slackerdom, but the Renew/Cancel Index got out in front of Bubble Watch in terms of being forward looking, and that's saying something since generally the R/C Index is based only on what has happened so far. But on Tuesday Bill recalibrated focusing on the more recent ratings data. I didn't think he'd get around to doing that until next month! As a result of that calibration, among other changes Unforgettable slid from a toss-up to likely to be canceled and Person of Interest bumped up to likely renewal.
At this point the Bubble Watch and R/C are fairly synced up. There are several shows Bill has as likely renewals that I still have as on the bubble, but none of those are hige discrepancies. Particularly in the case of the CW the unwillingness I have to bump some shows up is that in the absolute, the ratings are horrible, and the question of with Dawn Ostroff gone, might 2012-13 be the year CW moves further away from its focus on women 18-34?
There is one vehement disagreement though:
Fringe Isn't on the Bubble or a Toss Up, It's Likely to be Canceled!
And those who enjoy chiding at me for my cowardice over keeping a "toss up" may continue to do so. It's ratings are terrible, but so were they last season. Warner Brothers gave the show away for a fourth season, and there's some chance they'll do it again.
As a stand-alone sentiment, without looking at the designation (Bill has declared Fringe a tossup) I agree with what's written above completely. However... With last year's renewal there was at least the incentive on Warner Bros' part to discount to get to 88 episodes for stripped syndication purposes. With that accomplished with the fourth season renewal, what's the incentive to give it away for a fifth season? Because it's Fringe, that's why! But that "some chance" is worse than last year and the difference between certain cancellation and likely cancellation, not likely cancellation and a toss-up.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|How To Be a Gentleman||CBS||Canceled|
|The Playboy Club||NBC||Canceled|
|A Gifted Man||CBS||Certain Cancellation|
|Harry's Law||NBC||Certain Cancellation|
|Body of Proof||ABC||Likely Cancellation|
|CSI: NY||CBS||Likely Cancellation|
|I Hate My Teenage Daughter||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Bones||Fox||On The Bubble|
|House||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Raising Hope||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Terra Nova||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Gossip Girl||CW||On The Bubble|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||On The Bubble|
|Nikita||CW||On The Bubble|
|Ringer||CW||On The Bubble|
|Community||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Up All Night||NBC||Waiting for New Time Slot Ratings|
|Whitney||NBC||Waiting for New Time Slot Ratings|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Private Practice||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|CSI: Miami||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|The Good Wife||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|The Mentalist||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|The Secret Circle||CW||Likely Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Grey's Anatomy||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|The Middle||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Vampire Diaries||CW||Certain Renewal|
|New Girl||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|The Office||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewed|
|The Cleveland Show||Fox||Renewed|
|Desperate Housewives||ABC||Final Season|