ABC: How Will ‘Once Upon A Time’ & ‘Body Of Proof’ Ratings Ring In The New Year?
Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through January 1, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Body Of Proof||:cry: :cry:||0.66|
|Private Practice||:) :) :) :)||0.88|
|Castle||:) :) :) :)||0.89|
|Revenge||:) :) :) :)||0.94|
|Last Man Standing||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.00|
|The Middle||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.03|
|Desperate Housewives||final season||1.04|
|Suburgatory||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.07|
|Happy Endings||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.09|
|Once Upon A Time||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.27|
|Grey’s Anatomy||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.30|
|Modern Family||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.97|
For those keeping track at home, with no new scripted show episodes in the past two weeks, ABC’s Renew/Cancel Index is unchanged.
With Body of Proof Fall ratings making it likely to be canceled, and Once Upon A Time ratings still in the likely to be renewed range, but with declines continuing, what will the New Year of ratings ring in?
This will be the final Renew / Cancel Index post for the season using the Fall episode ratings for each show. Beginning next week (January 9), only episodes since January 2 will be used in the Index and for my prediction purposes. While I will link back to this post in future weeks, take a good look at these numbers, the Indexes (and predictions) may change noticeably for some shows in the near future.
Q: Why do that?
A: Because over the past several years resetting the Index for “Spring” only ratings has increased prediction accuracy, and reduced confusion about the Index values by readers.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.