CW: Will 'Nikita,' 'Ringer,' 'Gossip Girl,' & 'Hart Of Dixie' Have A Happy Or Sad New Year?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 3rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through January 1, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.70
Gossip Girl :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.90
Supernatural (F) :) :) :) :) 0.93
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.94
Ringer :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Secret Circle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.72

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For those keeping track at home, with no new scripted show episodes in the past three weeks, the CW's Renew/Cancel Index is unchanged.

Likely more than any of the other broadcast networks, the Spring ratings for CW shows have the chance to separate the pack of existing scripted shows into a clearer prediction picture, or not. The Fall ratings didn't provide much clarity, as a large portion of their shows seemed to be in a ratings race to the bottom.

It will be interesting to see which CW shows have a Happy New Year of ratings, and which have the bell tolling for their cancellation.

This will be the final Renew / Cancel Index post for the season using the Fall episode ratings for each show. Beginning next week (January 9), only episodes since January 2 will be used in the Index and for my prediction purposes. While I will link back to this post in future weeks, take a good look at these numbers, the Indexes (and predictions) may change noticeably for some shows in the near future.

Q: Why do that?

A: Because over the past several years resetting the Index for "Spring" only ratings has increased prediction accuracy, and reduced confusion about the Index values by readers.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
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