CW: Among The Ratings Woeful, ‘Supernatural’ & ‘The Secret Circle’ Have An Edge For Renewal
Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCwShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2-22, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Nikita (F)||:| :| :|||0.67|
|Gossip Girl||:| :| :|||0.73|
|90210||:| :| :|||0.73|
|Supernatural (F)||:) :) :) :)||0.91|
|The Secret Circle||:) :) :) :)||0.93|
|One Tree Hill||final season||0.97|
|Vampire Diaries||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.54|
|Hart Of Dixie||:) :) :) :) **|
|Ringer||:) :) :) :) **|
My partner in crime suggests that all CW shows other than The Vampire Diaries be put on the bubble, in the balance between renewal and cancellation because all their ratings are terrible.
As of this week, I can’t argue with that assessment except as it applies to Supernatural and The Secret Circle.
Supernatural’s ratings are far too good for a Friday show, to put it at any more than a tiny risk of cancellation. And while the retentionistas howl every week, The Secret Circle’s current ratings look likely to get it renewed as well.
At this point, any of the others being canceled wouldn’t surprise me, but spring ratings may serve to clarify those prospects.
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW’s shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule, and are grouped at the top of the table.
** shows that have not yet aired new episodes in 2012 have their Fall 2011 predictions listed instead.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.