FOX: So Far, So Good For ‘Alcatraz’
Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewFOXShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2-22, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Allen Gregory *||canceled||0.72|
|Terra Nova *||:| :| :|||0.90|
|Fringe (F)||:| :| :|||0.39|
|The Finder||:cry: :cry:||0.69|
|The Cleveland Show||renewed||0.78|
|Raising Hope||:| :| :|||0.82|
|Bones||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||0.85|
|Glee||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.10|
|Alcatraz||:) :) :) :)||1.17|
|New Girl||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.21|
|Napoleon Dynamite||:) :) :) :)||1.37|
|I Hate My Teenage Daughter||:cry: :cry: **|
|House||:) :) :) :) **|
To borrow a phrase currently in vogue by the TV media, Fox’s Alcatraz didn’t Lone Star its premiere. In fact it did far better. And the show’s ratings only dropped 10% in its second episode (although the second episode ratings are not yet reflected in the table above). It’s currently likely to be renewed. Note: I like to wait until at least two weeks of ratings are included in the Index before predicting certain renewal.
The Finder got a little ratings help following American Idol last week, but not enough to move it out of the more likely to be canceled than renewed range. It’s not inconceivable that will happen in the future. Stay tuned.
With the gale force tailwind of the NFC Divisional playoff game, Napoleon Dynamite started with big ratings, but not bigger than the premiere of Bob’s Burgers on a similar night last season. Of course it looks good for renewal now, but that’s just the beginning of the story.
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX’s shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule, and are grouped at the top of the table.
** shows that have not yet aired new episodes in 2012 have their Fall 2011 predictions listed instead.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.