ABC: 'Castle' Ratings Without 'Dancing With The Stars' Aren't Good, But It's Still Likely Renewed

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 31st, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2-29, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am canceled 0.45
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Body Of Proof :oops: 0.57
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Man Up * canceled 0.66
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.80
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.86
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.86
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.90
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Desperate Housewives final season 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.24
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.93

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While waiting for the many ABC spring show premieres, I thought I'd take a break from the otherwise endless cavalcade of "Body Of Proof is certain to be canceled" headlines.

The legions of commenters calling for Castle's cancellation at the Index level above certainly know its ratings will revive once Dancing with the Stars returns. Yet I continue to predict likely renewal for it, because even at 80% of ABC's scripted show average, that's not really the danger zone for a veteran show that hasn't had its customary lead in yet in 2012. Unless something shocking happens later this spring, the show is likely safe for another season. By the same token, Castle fans commenting about the show having "strong" ratings need to get a little perspective. It's ratings aren't strong, they're below average, just not below average enough to be dangerous to its longevity at this point.

For the delusional Pan Am fans who still deny the show's already been canceled riddle me this, except for the PR nonsense from ABC that the "show is in consideration for a second season", how is its situation different than NBC's Prime Suspect? Both are canceled. Pan Am just had a few more episodes left to air than Prime Suspect did before it will vanish into the ether in exactly the same way.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
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