CBS: More Sitcom Time Likely Means Another Drama Cancellation, Will It Happen?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 7th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- February 5, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
A Gifted Man (F) :oops: 0.43
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.53
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :) 0.55
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.72
Unforgettable :cry: :cry: 0.74
How To Be A Gentleman * canceled 0.74
CSI: Miami :| :| :| 0.77
Hawaii Five-0 :) :) :) :) 0.89
The Mentalist :) :) :) :) 0.90
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.97
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| ** 1.02
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Rob :) :) :) :) 1.13
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Big Bang Theory renewed 1.69

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There's been lots of chatter in the TV media about the resurgence of sitcoms in broadcast primetime. Those looking for cause and effect have tried to tie it to problems with the economy (we love to laugh when we're unemployed!). I think that's silly, but what isn't silly is that sitcoms are the highest rated shows on all four big broadcast nets and have mostly moved above network sibling dramas in the ratings.

That's in ample evidence at CBS. This spring their four top rated shows are sitcoms, and all 6 spring sitcoms are in their top 7. This has led many to speculate that CBS may expand their sitcom time on their Fall 2012 schedule. I think that's a reasonable guess. But there's only 22 hours in their broadcast primetime schedule, and an hour more of sitcoms means something's gotta give.

Were CBS to expand their sitcom time in their 2012 Fall schedule they'd either:

1. Cancel another drama currently on the schedule, bringing the number of drama cancellations to four vs. the typical three.

2. Hold a veteran drama off the Fall schedule, but plan to bring it back in the spring.

3. Premiere fewer than the typical three new dramas.

4. Move a veteran drama to Saturday.

If sitcom time increases by an hour next Fall, I view #2 as most likely, followed by #1, then #4. #3 would be quite a surprise.

Given the success of 2 Broke Girls, unless CBS expands its sitcom time, its almost certain that Rules of Engagement and Rob both would be canceled. Although, its not inconceivable that one of them might get some sort of funky scheduling to keep it around.

What do you think they'll do?

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did CBS' shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** shows that have not yet aired new episodes in 2012 have their Fall 2011 predictions listed instead.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
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