CW: Ratings Collapse Could Cause More Than Expected Number Of Show Cancellations

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 7th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- February 5, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.70
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.72
Ringer :| :| :| 0.79
Gossip Girl :| :| :| 0.83
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.88
The Secret Circle :) :) :) :) 0.99
One Tree Hill final season 0.99
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.65

-
Because the crack PR troops at the CW never rest, you may not have seen much in the entertainment media about the utter collapse of the network's ratings this season, but our readers know its adults 18-49 ratings are down 27% vs. last season. That's not "typical long term broadcast primetime erosion" (-5%), or even "NBC is FUBAR'd" declines (-11%), that's "dump whatever's not bolted down or the balloon's going to crash" territory.

In a weekly example that mirrors the entire season, during week 20 last season, Hellcats drew a network low 0.8 adults 18-49 rating for the week. That 0.8 was as good or better than all but two shows (The Vampire Diaries, Supernatural) on the CW last week (week 20 of this season).

The ratings decline is so steep that I fear the methods of the Renew / Cancel Index are not entirely reliable against such a situation, and that more shows than the ~2 cancellations predicted by the four shows in the normally 50/50 "toss up" range may occur at the end of the season. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if some combination of four shows (the most likely being Nikita, Hart Of Dixie, Ringer & Gossip Girl) were canceled in a desperate bid to get as many new shows on the air as possible next Fall to try and find something that works. Of course, to do that, CBS and Warner Brothers would have to loosen up their checkbooks quite a bit more than they have recently for the CW. Will they do that? Sadly, they're not returning my calls.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** shows that have not yet aired new episodes in 2012 have their Fall 2011 predictions listed instead.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures