FOX: Early Ratings For 'Touch' & 'Alcatraz' Don't Bode Well For 'Terra Nova' Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 7th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- February 5, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) :| :| :| 0.43
The Cleveland Show renewed 0.65
Allen Gregory * canceled 0.72
Raising Hope :| :| :| 0.80
The Finder :cry: :cry: 0.84
American Dad renewed 0.85
Bones :) :) :) :) 0.89
Terra Nova * :| :| :| 0.90
House final season 1.11
Alcatraz :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Napoleon Dynamite :| :| :| 1.21
The Simpsons renewed 1.25
Glee :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Family Guy renewed 1.31
Touch :) :) :) :) 1.45

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Any fan (or anti-fan) of Terra Nova has certainly heard about how production problems allowed only a short rookie season, and that any decision for renewal for next season had to come sooner rather than later because of the long production time.

My guess is that the renewal decision timing may not be nearly as urgent as many in the press have reported, but if it's soon, the very early relative success of Fox's spring dramas Alcatraz and Touch aren't good news for Terra Nova fans. Terra Nova fans better hope that Fox has more time before it must decide on Terra Nova, to allow time for the other two dramas' ratings to (potentially) fade.

The Finder's ratings are currently at a level where I'd give a veteran show at least a "toss up" chance for renewal, but for a rookie show it's still more likely to be canceled than renewed.

2/8 Update: This will be the final season for House.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** shows that have not yet aired new episodes in 2012 have their Fall 2011 predictions listed instead.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
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