NBC: Even With Lower Ratings, '30 Rock' Likely Gets The Renewal Over 'Whitney' & 'Are You There, Chelsea?'

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 7th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- February 5, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Prime Suspect* canceled 0.47
The Firm canceled 0.64
Free Agents * canceled 0.66
The Playboy Club * canceled 0.67
Chuck (F)* final season complete 0.69
Harry's Law :oops: 0.72
Community * :) :) :) :) ** 0.87
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.97
30 Rock :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Whitney :| :| :| 1.06
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
Are You There, Chelsea? :| :| :| 1.12
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Up All Night :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
The Office :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.83

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30 Rock notched a woeful 1.3 adults 18-49 rating last week. There was some evidence that DVR recording was disrupted by bad program data. If so, expect a bounce back to a slightly less woeful 1.5 or so this week. But even at ratings levels lower than Are You There, Chelsea? and Whitney, 30 Rock is likely to be renewed over them because of its presumed value in syndication and (unlike Chelsea) it's produced by NBC.

Are You There, Chelsea? and Whitney didn't face a full slate of broadcast competition last week, but even so, their 1.7 adults 18-49 ratings were above average when compared with all NBC scripted shows for the week. The next several weeks of full broadcast competition should provide a much clearer picture of their future.

The cancellation bear caught The Firm last week in its widely anticipated (except by one Forbes reporter) cancellation / Saturday burn off announcement.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** shows that have not yet aired new episodes in 2012 have their Fall 2011 predictions listed instead.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
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