FOX: Even Free, 'Fringe' Might Not Be Worth It, But That's All Fans Can Hope For

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 14th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- February 12, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) :| :| :| 0.44
The Cleveland Show renewed 0.61
Allen Gregory * canceled 0.72
Raising Hope :| :| :| 0.83
American Dad renewed 0.83
The Finder :cry: :cry: 0.88
Terra Nova * :| :| :| 0.90
Bones :) :) :) :) 0.94
House final season 1.10
Alcatraz :| :| :| 1.11
Napoleon Dynamite :| :| :| 1.13
The Simpsons renewed 1.18
Family Guy renewed 1.28
Glee :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.31
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Touch :) :) :) :) 1.52

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Our commenters take great sport in mocking me for predicting Fringe as just a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation. Make no mistake, its ratings are look away awful, and relatively much more awful than last season. This season Fringe is averaging just 43% of Fox's scripted show Spring average through week 21, last season it was 63%. How can it still be a toss up?

I always preach ignoring what networks say, and paying attention only to what they do.

What Fox says:

  • "We love Fringe" Certainly true, but irrelevant. They love all their shows, right until the day they cancel them (and afterwards!).
  • "Fringe is losing us money" Perhaps true, but possibly fixable. Profit and loss can be adjusted by a change in the license fee.

What Fox did:

  • Renewed Fringe after woeful third season ratings for a fourth season, almost certainly because Warner Brothers sharply cut the license fee.
Would Fox renew the show again if Warner Brothers practically gave it away (again)? Maybe.
Is there any reason Warner Brothers would do that? Maybe.
That's certainly all sane fans can hope for, and for my purposes those two Maybes = "toss up".
The continuing ratings slide for Alcatraz has it down to a "toss up" for cancellation or renewal, even though its average will only slowly catch up to its latest ratings. More on it in next week's post. Note that Monday's ratings are not yet in the average above.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** shows that have not yet aired new episodes in 2012 have their Fall 2011 predictions listed instead.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
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