When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

No changes this week, but the regular Tuesday Renew/Cancel reports are going on vacation this week so I’ll be posting special “by network” versions of Bubble Watch on Tuesday and I’d look for changes then. As most of you know broadcast ratings took a hit at least Monday-Thursday leaving many wondering why, and others pointing a finger at Nielsen.  Though we’ll probably never be able to exactly quantify them for the most part I think there are reasonable explanations that don’t involve any problems at Nielsen or any conspiracies. Conspiracy theorists will probably never be able to quantify the conspiracies either. Or maybe they will!

So Alcatraz gets a couple of extra day on the Bubble in honor of Nielsen conspiracies, Fan Excuse Bingo and President’s Day. It’s fun to blame Honest Abe’s real birthday for last week’s broadcast ratings woes! Crazy as hell, but fun!

I’ve been taking flack in the comments for weeks because I’ve got Supernatural on the bubble rather than likely (or certain) to be renewed. Based on relative ratings for the CW alone, it is certain to be renewed but my hypothesis (which certainly could be proved wrong) is that things are so bad at the CW that relative ratings are dicey. To some degree it’s like the 2011 Chicago Cubs who finished 20 games under .500 (71-91) looking at their division’s cellar-dwellers, the Houston Astros (who finished a whopping 50 games under .500 with a record of 56 wins and 106 losses) and thinking “Hey, we’re pretty good!”

But there are some reasonable complaints about that approach which include:

• Coward! This way whatever happens you can say you’re right!!
• Too cautious!
• Unimaginative!
• Boring!
• You’re wrong, Supernatural is a likely renewal!

Then there are the people who write 10 paragraph angry missives. Among the criticisms there:

• It’s so unfair!  (me saying “I don’t know” is unfair?)
• Like Dawn Ostroff before you, you are demeaning a show I love! (I love Supernatural too, and Dawn Ostroff… renewed the show to its seventh season. So demeaning!)
• You’re saying the methodology your site uses doesn’t work! (not exactly, I’m saying ratings at CW are generally so bad I’m worried it won’t work well in the case of the CW).
• You’re just baiting the Supernatural fans for more traffic!

So this week I am baiting Supernatural fans for traffic. But not the previous weeks. The only opportunity to bait fans for clicks is in a post’s headline. If you put something in the actual post that sticks in the craw of fans, only the people who were going to read the post anyway will see it. But having seen such comments for weeks now, I figured I’d go ahead and live up to that complaint.

To paraphrase the Mamas & The Papas: broke, busted, disgusted, internet commenters can’t be trusted.  But lest anyone think I’m ragging on the comments and the commenters, I’m not! Besides, many of our commenters are great. I’ll single one out, commenter “Tom” who has been commenting on the site for years. He’s rational and reasonable, he doesn’t think about things from the vantage point of a disgruntled fan and he’s open to different points of view. He’s also very thoughtful. On top of that, he coined the phrase “schedule spackle” or at least I first saw it used by Tom and I’ve since co-opted it and used it regularly.  Commenters like Tom make the site better.

And sometimes comments are just plain fun. Hands-down the specific comment I remember the most in 4+ years of this site comes from commenter “groove365.”  When Syfy announced it was developing a cooking show (that ultimately became ‘Marcel’s Quantum Kitchen”) groove365 commented “SOYLENT GREEN IS PEOPLE!!” which was the perfect comment for the announcement of a cooking show on Syfy.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.