The Renew/Cancel Index is on vacation this week, so I'm doing special "by network" versions of Bubble Watch (regular versions of Bubble Watch contain all scripted shows that have aired for all networks and are posted on Sundays). Fear not, the regular Tuesday Renew/Cancel Index will be back next week!
While like the Renew/Cancel Index, Bubble Watch is mostly derived based on relative adults 18-49 ratings, the big difference is that the R/C Index doesn't "guess" about what is to come and ranks shows based on what would happen if the season ended now. Not guessing about the future is a good policy. Despite that, Bubble Watch makes guesses anyway.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and lawsuits and plead their cases in the comments.
Commenter Tom Shaw has a pet theory that when CBS shows that launch in the fall don't get at least 22 episodes for the season their prospects aren't good. He's got some data to back it up too. Throwing out the strike year, over the last half decade CBS had 18 scripted shows that premiered in the fall and wound up with less than 22 episodes aired by the end of the season and seventeen out of 18 were not renewed for the next season. The lone exception was Gary Unmarried in the 2008-09 season which aired 20 episodes and was renewed. If those percentages hold up that's bad news for CSI: NY, CSI: Miami and Rules of Engagement (ratings for A Gifted Man and the already canceled How To Be A Gentleman were already bad news enough).
Rules of Engagement is a lone episode away from the 88 episodes typically used as the minimum threshold for stripped syndication. But while I think it will be brought back if CBS increases the amount of comedy time on the schedule (and I think it will) it's close enough to 88 episodes where Sony might not be willing to offer bargain basement pricing to get to 88.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|How To Be a Gentleman||CBS||Canceled|
|A Gifted Man||CBS||Certain Cancellation|
|CSI: NY||CBS||On The Bubble|
|The Good Wife||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rob||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|CSI: Miami||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|The Mentalist||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewed|