Bubble Watch CBS: No Matter How You Look At It, 'A Gifted Man' Won't Be Back; A Catch '22' for 'CSI's NY & Miami' and 'Rules of Engagement?

Categories: Bubble Watch,Cancel/Renew CBS Shows

Written By

February 21st, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is on vacation this week, so I'm doing special "by network" versions of Bubble Watch (regular versions of Bubble Watch contain all scripted shows that have aired for all networks and are posted on Sundays). Fear not, the regular Tuesday Renew/Cancel Index will be back next week!

While like the Renew/Cancel Index, Bubble Watch is mostly derived based on relative adults 18-49 ratings, the big difference is that the R/C Index doesn't "guess" about what is to come and ranks shows based on what would happen if the season ended now. Not guessing about the future is a good policy.  Despite that, Bubble Watch makes guesses anyway.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and lawsuits and  plead their cases in the comments. 

Commenter Tom Shaw has a pet theory that when CBS shows that launch in the fall don't get at least 22 episodes for the season their prospects aren't good. He's got some data to back it up too. Throwing out the strike year, over the last half decade CBS had 18 scripted shows that premiered in the fall and wound up with less than 22 episodes aired by the end of the season and seventeen out of 18 were not renewed for the next season. The lone exception was Gary Unmarried in the 2008-09 season which aired 20 episodes and was renewed.  If those percentages hold up that's bad news for CSI: NY, CSI: Miami and Rules of Engagement (ratings for A Gifted Man and the already canceled How To Be A Gentleman were already bad news enough). 

Rules of Engagement is a lone episode away from the 88 episodes typically used as the minimum threshold for stripped syndication. But while I think it will be brought back if CBS increases the amount of comedy time on the schedule (and I think it will) it's close enough to 88 episodes where Sony might not be willing to offer bargain basement pricing to get to 88.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
How To Be a Gentleman CBS Canceled
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Blue Bloods CBS Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
CSI: Miami CBS Likely Renewal
The Mentalist CBS Likely Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
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