Bubble Watch FOX: 'Alcatraz' Likely Cancelled, 'Fringe' Too

Categories: Bubble Watch,Cancel/Renew Fox Shows

Written By

February 21st, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is on vacation this week, so I'm doing special "by network" versions of Bubble Watch (regular versions of Bubble Watch contain all scripted shows that have aired for all networks and are posted on Sundays). Fear not, the regular Tuesday Renew/Cancel Index will be back next week!

While like the Renew/Cancel Index, Bubble Watch is mostly derived based on relative adults 18-49 ratings, the big difference is that the R/C Index doesn't "guess" about what is to come and ranks shows based on what would happen if the season ended now. Not guessing about the future is a good policy.  Despite that, Bubble Watch makes guesses anyway.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and lawsuits and  plead their cases in the comments. 

Alcatraz  has now slipped into likely cancellation territory and I'll be surprised if it recovers.

Based on last year's experience, Bill has kept Fringe as a toss-up all season despite its ratings. Could what happened last year happen again? Sure it could. But last year, even though we got it wrong it was easy to make a case  for renewal based on the conventional wisdom of studios discounting shows to get to enough episodes for syndication. Fringe will have enough episodes after the current season though. If it's renewed it will be anything but conventional.  But because it's Fringe it's merely a likely cancellation rather than a certain cancellation.

Some crazy guy e-mails us and spams the comments every week that we must be being paid off by Napoleon Dynamite since it's stayed a toss up/on the bubble. Blame Bob's Burgers whose similar trajectory last season earned it a renewal. But the trend certainly isn't Napoleon Dynamite's friend.

 Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Alcatraz Fox Likely Cancellation
Fringe Fox Likely Cancellation
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Raising Hope Fox On The Bubble
Terra Nova Fox On The Bubble
Touch Fox On The Bubble
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
American Dad Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
House Fox Final Season
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