ABC: 'The River' Is Likely To Be Canceled; Can Syndication Save 'Cougar Town'?

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

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February 28th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- February 26, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Body Of Proof :oops: 0.56
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Man Up * canceled 0.66
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.67
The River :cry: :cry: 0.74
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.81
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.89
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.89
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.94
Desperate Housewives final season 0.94
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.97

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After three weeks, it's clear that The River isn't heading anywhere past this season, and its ratings make it likely to be canceled by the end of the season.

After just two weeks back, Cougar Town ratings are doing just as badly, then why is it just a "toss up"?

We've learned that low rated shows in their third season, sometimes are renewed for a fourth simply to reach the current seeming minimum of 88 episodes for stripped syndication because that is such a money fountain.

If Cougar Town was going to finish its third season with 66 or more episodes (which would make 88 routinely possible after the fourth season), I'd not make it any worse than a "toss up" for the rest of the year. Problem is, a shortened (15 episode) third season will leave it with only 61 episodes. Is that enough for it to grasp at a fourth season based on potential syndication? Maybe. But fans better hope for that, because otherwise the ratings say "likely to be canceled".

Next week: GCB premieres.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
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