Update:'Terra Nova' has been canceled

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Despite being an hour-long, if you count Glee as a comedy rather than a drama the state of things at Fox as far as dramas go looks pretty bleak.  Though Touch is on the bubble in the list below, that’s a mere formality since it has aired only one episode. I could change it to “certain to be renewed” at this point and still be right.  Touch has already proved me wrong once though: I was certain if it had  Kiefer Sutherland that it would be airing Mondays at 9pm in homage to the glory days of 24.  Fox thought that way too, before changing its mind.

It’s hard to blame Fox for moving Touch to Thursdays. “Let’s give our last best shot at drama for 2011-12 season its best shot” makes a lot of sense even if it dredged up the  crazy and pathetic Bones fans (of course not all Bones fans are crazy and pathetic, most of them are very cool I’m sure. But  the crazy and pathetic ones poked their heads out of their gopher holes when the schedule change was announced).

Sure, there's not chance Bones ratings on Mondays at 8pm won’t be as good as they would’ve been following American Idol on Thursdays, but I’m not too worried about Bones even with  that. With The Finder and Alcatraz headed towards cancellation and House limping off into the sunset it’s hard (though not impossible) to imagine Bones not coming back next season.

Like Bill I was never convinced that Fox had to make its decision about Terra Nova as early as some TV media suggested, but I do think it needs longer lead-times than normal and no news isn’t necessarily good news. But the state of Fox’s dramas have me at least a little bit more optimistic about Terra Nova than I was when it finished its season in the fall.

That optimism doesn’t carry over to Fringe, though I am looking forward to comments complaining that Fox killed the show by giving it The Finder as a lead-in (those comments will be even more fun if The Finder actually rates better than Fringe on Fridays). Last year Fringe’s renewal was announced the evening of March 24. I’m thinking the date will be later (May, not March) and that the results will be different this year and I’m ignoring the e-mails warning me to “Beware the Ides of March!”  Either way props to Fox for giving us the alliterate-able Finder-Fringe-Friday!

Too soon to weigh-in on NBC's Awake (maybe next week).  I upgraded Smash to likely renewal since it's hard to imagine NBC not renewing it. Another steady-ish outing on Monday might get it upgraded to certain renewal.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.