CW: Will 'Gossip Girl' Get The "Dawn Ostroff Memorial Renewal" Over 'Hart Of Dixie' & 'Nikita'?

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 6th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- March 4, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Ringer :cry: :cry: 0.67
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.73
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.79
Gossip Girl :| :| :| 0.80
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.94
The Secret Circle :) :) :) :) 1.05
One Tree Hill final season 1.05
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.79

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With Ringer separating itself from the CW pack to the downside, the network is still certain to cancel one more scripted show (and maybe more) and it will almost certainly choose from Hart Of Dixie, Nikita and Gossip Girl.

Even though its spring ratings are as woeful as Hart Of Dixie, I'd give Gossip Girl a bit more chance at renewal than the other two. Call it the "Dawn Ostroff Memorial Renewal".

It's impossible for me to separate the chances of Hart Of Dixie and Nikita. Nikita ratings are lower, but it's on Friday. But, it's in its second season and has had two "bites at the apple" to distinguish itself. Hart Of Dixie may get a renewal just to give it a second chance. Or not, they could both be canceled.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
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