NBC: ‘Smash’ Now Certain To Be Renewed, Let The Retentionistas Howl
Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewNbcShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- March 4, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Free Agents *||canceled||0.66|
|The Playboy Club *||canceled||0.67|
|Chuck (F)*||final season complete||0.69|
|Community *||:) :) :) :) **||0.87|
|Grimm (F)||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||0.91|
|Are You There, Chelsea?||:cry: :cry:||0.92|
|30 Rock||:) :) :) :)||0.93|
|Whitney||:| :| :|||0.94|
|Parenthood*||:) :) :) :)||1.00|
|Parks & Recreation||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.03|
|Up All Night||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.03|
|Law & Order: SVU||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.04|
|Awake||:) :) :) :)||1.17|
|The Office||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.57|
|Smash||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.64|
With the cancellation bear already stuffed full of NBC shows, with more certain to follow, he can afford to let one get away.
While Smash ratings had always been well above the otherwise woeful level of NBC scripted shows, until it stopped its ratings slide last week I didn’t move it to “certain to be renewed”. Now that it has, I have as well.
My guess is that Smash has the retentionistas howling. The final half hour of last night’s The Voice had a 6.5 adults 18-49 rating, the first half hour of Smash had a 2.9 (the second a 2.5). If that isn’t blood in the water for the crazy retentionistas I don’t know what is. As is their way, they’ll wail about the show’s retention, but that’s a meaningless metric for prediction. The show’s getting renewed.
Awake’s premiere ratings were well above the wreckage of NBC’s typical scripted show, so it’s likely to be renewed for now, but that can change quickly. Stay tuned.
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC’s shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
** shows that have not yet aired new episodes in 2012 have their Fall 2011 predictions listed instead.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.