Bubble Watch: ‘Terra Nova’ Cancellation Doesn’t Help ‘Alcatraz,’ ‘The Finder’ or ‘Fringe’; Too Soon to Pronounce ‘Awake’ Dead
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn’t coming back next season.
This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Not to burst the bubble of any fans who in the wake of Terra Nova’s cancellation are hopeful that means it’s more likely that Alcatraz and The Finder will be renewed, but, it doesn’t mean it’s more likely those shows will be renewed. It’s no less likely either though! Though it’s likely The Finder will be canceled, depending on how it does on Fridays I wouldn’t be shocked if it was renewed. Barring a dramatic ratings uptick in its final three episodes I would be very surprised if Alcatraz survives so I’ve downgraded it to certain cancellation.
Breaking In debuts on the bubble but to me that’s a formality due to only having aired one episode and being slightly singed last season (I had it as likely to be cancelled, and it kinda was before being uncancelled). I don’t fault Fox for noting that this year’s season premiere was up versus last year’s finale since there was really no good apples-to-apples comparison to make since last season’s premiere was behind American Idol. But the comparison to last year’s finale isn’t apples-to-apples either since it ran behind Raising Hope while Tuesday’s season premiere had the higher-rated New Girl as its lead-in.
For those who’ve continually been asking when the likes of 30 Rock and Law & Order: SVU will be downgraded my reply is not yet, and perhaps never. But somewhat like the CW NBC has a lot of low-rated shows packed tightly together that could make things tricky to predict if there’s no clearer separation between shows in the next couple of months.
For now it’s still a bit too soon to demote Awake to likely cancellation. The trend is certainly not Awake’s friend but it’s still not clear where (and when) it will stabilize.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|How To Be a Gentleman||CBS||Canceled|
|The Playboy Club||NBC||Canceled|
|Body of Proof||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|A Gifted Man||CBS||Certain Cancellation|
|Harry’s Law||NBC||Certain Cancellation|
|The River||ABC||Likely Cancellation|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||Likely Cancellation|
|I Hate My Teenage Daughter||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|The Finder||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|Are You There, Chelsea?||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Cougar Town||ABC||On The Bubble|
|GCB||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Private Practice||ABC||On The Bubble|
|CSI: NY||CBS||On The Bubble|
|The Good Wife||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rob||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Gossip Girl||CW||On The Bubble|
|Nikita||CW||On The Bubble|
|Supernatural||CW||On The Bubble|
|The Secret Circle||CW||On The Bubble|
|Breaking In||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Napoleon Dynamite||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Touch||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Awake||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Community||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Whitney||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|CSI: Miami||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|The Mentalist||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Raising Hope||Fox||Likely Renewal|
|30 Rock||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Up All Night||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Grey’s Anatomy||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|The Middle||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Vampire Diaries||CW||Certain Renewal|
|New Girl||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|The Office||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewed|
|The Cleveland Show||Fox||Renewed|
|Desperate Housewives||ABC||Final Season|
|One Tree Hill||CW||Final Season|