CW: Renewing ‘Nikita’ For One Season Likely Means Taking It For Two, Is That A Season Too Many?
Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCwShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- March 11, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Nikita (F)||:| :| :|||0.73|
|Hart Of Dixie||:| :| :|||0.80|
|Gossip Girl||:| :| :|||0.80|
|90210||:) :) :) :)||0.96|
|One Tree Hill||final season||1.05|
|The Secret Circle||:) :) :) :)||1.05|
|Supernatural (F)||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.10|
|Vampire Diaries||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.81|
The CW will likely cancel two dramas currently on its schedule (although three wouldn’t surprise me), not counting One Tree Hill. With Ringer ratings noticeably below the rest of the Monday-Thursday shows it’s the prime candidate, but what’s second?
Given some sort of allowance for lower ratings on Friday, Nikita ratings and Hart of Dixie ratings are in the same neighborhood, so what sets them apart (other than the crazy commenters on our site)?
Since the CW is a play by CBS and Warner Brothers to create value in show properties that they can then license elsewhere (DVDs, Netflix, etc) its important they get enough episodes of a show to make it valuable. The effect of that on decision making is that renewing a show for a third season carries the assumption that it will also be renewed for a fourth (to get to the ~88 episodes for syndication). Although cratering third season ratings could call that into question (Cougar Town!).
For this season’s decisions, as astute commenter Tom pointed out last week, that means that a decision to renew Nikita for a third season, carries the assumption it will get a fourth. Sort of an “in for a penny, in for a pound” in TV land. The problem for Nikita emerges if the CW doesn’t want to endure two more seasons of low Nikita ratings.
Hart of Dixie doesn’t face that dilemma. A second season renewal could logically be followed by a cancellation.
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW’s shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.