Bubble Watch: "Community's" Prospects Continue to Brighten; CBS Formalizes Most of Its Formalities

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Community’s prospects have doubly brightened. NBC’s other scripted shows experienced declines during Community’s sabbatical and that improved Community’s relative standing. Then it returned with season high ratings (with room to spare). Sure, it didn’t have to contend with Big Bang Theory and some will argue that the real test will be the week after next when The Big Bang Theory returns.  I’d argue other than The Voice, it’s not like NBC has a lot of shows (or perhaps any) that are shoo-ins to perform better than Community even if all the other broadcast networks were running test patterns..

CBS renewed almost every show that was previously designated either likely to be renewed or certain to be renewed so none of the renewals were a surprise.  The only shows listed as certain or likely renewal last week that weren’t renewed were Two and a Half Men which I had as a certain renewal and CSI: Miami which I had as a likely renewal. CBS noted it is in discussions to renew Two and a Half Men for future seasons and there’s little doubt they’ll work the negotiations out and renew it, I’ve downgraded it slightly to “likely renewal.” With the renewals of The Good Wife and the flagship CSI,  it seems a certainty that at least one of the remaining CSI’s will be cancelled and perhaps both along with Unforgettable. I’ve downgraded CSI: Miami to the bubble where it arguably should’ve been for a while, as well as downgrading Unforgettable to certain cancellation.

Fairness zealots can point out that Unforgettable has had slightly better ratings than now renewed The Good Wife. But other than The Good Wife, Unforgettable is CBS's lowest-rated drama that doesn't air on Friday night. Some will chalk up Unforgettable's inevitable cancellation to lack of critical acclaim and Emmy awards, but I'll chalk it up to its low ratings and being so far away from syndication that the syndication shepherds at CBS can't see syndication on the horizon.

Though it’s only aired two episodes as I write this GCB is at least a little more likely to be renewed than canceled so I’ve taken it off the bubble and upgraded it to likely renewal. Missing’s lone outing doesn’t bode well for its future, but I’ll give it at least another week before moving it off the bubble.

As ever, no, I don't think Supernatural’s prospects are as bleak as the horribly-rated Nikita's.  Based on ratings alone Supernatural's prospects are much, much better. But because ratings are so awful for the CW in general (where every show except The Vampire Diaries has horrid ratings, even Supernatural) I’m not comfortable that it’s all about the relative ratings at the CW. I’m among Supernatural’s loyal fan base, but let’s face it, that fan base is relatively tiny when even lowly NBC managed to debut a show on Friday night whose originals have consistently performed twice as well as Supernatural’s originals and three times better than  Nikita's.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.