When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season

Touch’s official premiere was down 15% from the special preview in January, but that was still plenty good enough that barring steep declines in the coming weeks it’s likely to be renewed.

The week wasn’t as kind to NBC’s Awake or ABC’s Missing whose adults 18-49 ratings  fell 25% and 24% respectively from the previous week. Barring the rare rebound, both are now more likely to be canceled than renewed.

Community haters guffawed when Community dropped 23% in its second week back, but Community fans will likely have the last laugh. Even at the 1.7 adults 18-49 rating it fell to it would still be renewed. Moreover, with an off network syndication deal with Comedy Central lined up, it’s almost certain to get at least the additional season necessary to get it to enough episodes for stripped syndication (where repeats air at the same time every day Mon-Fri) regardless of what the ratings are like the remainder of the season.

The only thing that probably prevented Bent from debuting on the list as already canceled is that it only had six episodes to begin with. With two of them already aired and the remaining  four  planned to air over the next two Wednesdays, it won’t be around long regardless.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.