As I write this, as part of their retransmission negotiations, Tribune owned CW, Fox and MyNet affiliates in 19 US TV markets are no longer available via DirecTV.
How much could this hurt the Fox and CW ratings?
As of 2011 Q3, DirecTV was in 19.76 million US TV households. About 17% of the 114.7 million US TV households.
So what % of the US TV population do the Tribune affiliates (13 CW, 7 Fox, 2 MyNet) in those markets represent?
I took the latest number of TV households by market we have (2007), multiplied by the current share of total TV HHs that DirecTV represents (while this is certainly inaccurate market by market, its likely a reasonable estimate) and then calculated what % of the total US TV households that represents and summed them for both the CW and Fox (MyNet fans are on their own). I don't have numbers for a few small markets, and certainly the 2007 HHs by market are likely off by a bit, but plenty close enough for our purposes.
The result? A trivial loss of potential viewers for Fox (<1%), but somewhat more of a potential loss of viewers for the CW (~4.5%).
Fan Excuse Bingo players trying to pin Fox show ratings on the DirecTV situation are really stretching, and CW shows should only receive a small nick from the spat.
|Station||Network||% US TV HHs||DTV HHs (million)||2007 TV HHs (million)|
|Los Angeles, CA - KTLA||CW||0.85%||0.971||5.647|
|Denver, CO - KWGN||CW||0.22%||0.254||1.477|
|Hartford, CT - CTTV||CW||0.15%||0.173||1.007|
|South Florida, FL - SFLTV||CW||?||?|
|Chicago, IL - WGNTV||CW||0.52%||0.597||3.469|
|Indianapolis, IN - Indiana's 4||CW||0.16%||0.184||1.072|
|New Orleans, LA - NOLA38||CW||0.09%||0.103||0.6|
|St. Louis, MO - KPLR11||CW||0.19%||0.214||1.244|
|New York, NY - PIX11||CW||1.11%||1.271||7.391|
|Portland, OR - NW32||CW||0.17%||0.198||1.15|
|, TX - CW33||CW||0.36%||0.419||2.435|
|Houston, TX - CW39||CW||0.31%||0.353||2.05|
|Washington D.C. - DC50||CW||0.35%||0.397||2.308|
|Sacramento, CA - FOX40||FOX||0.21%||0.239||1.391|
|San Diego, CA - FOX5||FOX||0.16%||0.181||1.051|
|Hartford, CT - FOXCT||FOX||0.15%||0.173||1.007|
|Indianapolis, IN - FOX59||FOX||0.16%||0.184||1.072|
|Grand Rapids, MI - Fox17||FOX||?||?|
|Harrisburg, PA - FOX43||FOX||?||?|
|Seattle, WA - Q13FOX||FOX||0.27%||0.306||1.782|
|Philadelphia, PA - PHL17||MyNet|
|Seattle, WA - JOEtv||MyNet|