Bubble Watch: ‘Supernatural’ Likely Renewed; ‘Fringe’ Still Likely Canceled + ‘Best Friends Forever’ & ‘Scandal’
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn’t coming back next season.
This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season
Supernatural: Now Likely to Be Renewed
CW’s primetime has been so woeful about the only thing I’ve felt comfortable with most of this season is that The Vampire Diaries would be renewed. Ultimately I also notched 90210 up to likely renewal because it is the highest-rated CBS-produced show on the CW that didn’t air after The Vampire Diaries. That matters because of the CW’s ownership structure and how its owners make money (conventional wisdom is CW loses money as a network, but that it’s owners CBS & Warner Bros. make it back on the shows their studios produce).
I’ve said all along that if based on ratings alone, Supernatural was a shoo-in for renewal and that I only had it on the bubble because CW is such a mess I wasn’t sure it would operate under the status quo. CW is still woeful and I still won’t be surprised if it cancels more shows than normal. While the recent news of a showrunner change for Supernatural’s next season isn’t the same as a renewal (it still hasn’t been renewed yet) it seems unlikely they’d bother with that sort of announcement if everyone involved didn’t assume a renewal was likely, so it’s been pushed up to likely to be renewed. Again, based on relative ratings alone, it’s certain to be renewed.
Fringe: Still Likely to be Canceled (But “Likely” Isn’t “Certain”)
Some people believe that since there is a lot of noise about a final 13 episode season that the announcement of such a renewal is all but a formality. Other people believe that since Fringe hasn’t been renewed already, it’s cancellation is all but a formality. Whatever happens, one of those two camps will feel vindicated, but both of those positions are nonsensical.
At this point, it all boils down to $$$. I have no doubt that there is a price Warner Bros could offer a final season of 13 episodes to Fox that makes sense for Fox. Where the doubt creeps in is whether the price that makes sense for Fox makes sense for Warner Bros. While the notion of “more is better for syndication” is popular among many, I’m not sure that’s the case for Fringe which will already have enough episodes for stripped syndication at the end of *this* season.
Best Friends Forever Almost Certain to Be Canceled But…
Best Friends Forever debuted weakly, and I have it as “likely to be canceled.” Though I don’t usually split as many hairs between “likely” and “certain” as some of you do, with almost all broadcast originals being at lows on Thursday, I didn’t want to ding Best Friends all the way down to certain cancellation before giving it at least another week.
For Similar Reasons Scandal is “On The Bubble”
Scandal had a mediocre debut, and normally hitting the “bubble range” in the premiere is a bad omen. But with the broadcast nets pretty much taking across-the-board-hits, I’m leaving it on the bubble for at least another week.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|How To Be a Gentleman||CBS||Canceled|
|I Hate My Teenage Daughter||Fox||Canceled|
|The Playboy Club||NBC||Canceled|
|Body of Proof||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|The River||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|A Gifted Man||CBS||Certain Cancellation|
|Harry’s Law||NBC||Certain Cancellation|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||Likely Cancellation|
|Breaking In||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|The Finder||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|Are You There, Chelsea?||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Best Friends Forever||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Cougar Town||ABC||On The Bubble|
|GCB||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Private Practice||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Scandal||ABC||On The Bubble|
|CSI: Miami||CBS||On The Bubble|
|CSI: NY||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rob||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Gossip Girl||CW||On The Bubble|
|Nikita||CW||On The Bubble|
|The Secret Circle||CW||On The Bubble|
|Bob’s Burgers||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Napoleon Dynamite||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Up All Night||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Raising Hope||Fox||Likely Renewal|
|30 Rock||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Grey’s Anatomy||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|The Middle||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Vampire Diaries||CW||Certain Renewal|
|New Girl||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|The Office||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Renewed|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewed|
|The Good Wife||CBS||Renewed|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Renewed|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Renewed|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Renewed|
|The Cleveland Show||Fox||Renewed|
|Desperate Housewives||ABC||Final Season|
|One Tree Hill||CW||Final Season|