ABC: ‘Scandal’ Starts As A “Toss Up” For Renewal Or Cancellation; ‘GCB’ Now a “Toss Up” Too
Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 8, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Charlie’s Angels *||canceled||0.48|
|Work It! *||canceled||0.61|
|Body Of Proof||:oops:||0.64|
|Cougar Town||:| :| :|||0.65|
|Man Up *||canceled||0.66|
|Scandal||:| :| :|||0.82|
|GCB||:| :| :|||0.82|
|Castle||:) :) :) :)||0.88|
|Last Man Standing||:) :) :) :)||0.92|
|Private Practice||:) :) :) :)||0.94|
|Revenge||:) :) :) :)||1.00|
|Suburgatory||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.02|
|Happy Endings||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.00|
|Desperate Housewives||final season||1.03|
|The Middle||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.03|
|Once Upon A Time||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.27|
|Grey’s Anatomy||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.46|
|Modern Family||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||2.05|
Scandal’s premiere episode ratings placed it squarely in the “toss up” for renewal or cancellation category, but intial predictions can change quickly based on later results. Stay tuned.
Why is Cougar Town just a “toss up” with its dreadful ratings instead of “likely to be canceled” or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I’m keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a “toss up” because of potential syndication related benefits.
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC’s shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.