ABC: 'Scandal' Starts As A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation; 'GCB' Now a "Toss Up" Too

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 10th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 8, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Body Of Proof :oops: 0.64
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.65
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
Missing :cry: :cry: 0.68
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
GCB :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.88
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.92
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.94
Revenge :) :) :) :) 1.00
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Desperate Housewives final season 1.03
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.27
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.05

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Scandal's premiere episode ratings placed it squarely in the "toss up" for renewal or cancellation category, but intial predictions can change quickly based on later results. Stay tuned.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Bright

    BODY OF PROOF – 13
    COUGAR TOWN – 8
    THE RIVER – 6 (-1)
    MISSING – 9
    SCANDAL – 11 (+3)
    GCB – 10
    CASTLE – 5 (-2)
    LAST MAN STANDING – 10
    PRIVATE PRACTICE – 4 (-3)
    REVENGE – 14
    SUBURGATORY – 12
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 13
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 14 (+2)
    THE MIDDLE – 16 (+1)
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 10
    MODERN FAMILY – 7
    APARTMENT 23 – 10

    but… why isn’t Once Upon a Time on the list?

  • Wesley

    BODY OF PROOF – 13
    COUGAR TOWN – 8
    THE RIVER – 6
    MISSING – 9
    SCANDAL – 11
    GCB – 13 (+3)
    CASTLE – 5
    LAST MAN STANDING – 10
    PRIVATE PRACTICE – 4
    REVENGE – 14
    SUBURGATORY – 12
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 13
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 13 (-1)
    THE MIDDLE – 14 (-2)
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 7 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 9 (+2)
    APARTMENT 23 – 11 (+1)

  • tvfreak

    @Bright: Oops! Big mistake. Thanks for catching that.

    BODY OF PROOF – 13
    COUGAR TOWN – 8
    THE RIVER – 6
    MISSING – 9
    SCANDAL – 11
    GCB – 13
    CASTLE – 5
    LAST MAN STANDING – 10
    PRIVATE PRACTICE – 4
    REVENGE – 14
    SUBURGATORY – 12
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 13
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 13
    THE MIDDLE – 14
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 10
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 7
    MODERN FAMILY – 9
    APARTMENT 23 – 11

  • Rebecca

    BODY OF PROOF – 13
    COUGAR TOWN – 10 (+2)
    THE RIVER – 3 (-3)
    MISSING – 9
    SCANDAL – 11
    GCB – 14 (+1)
    CASTLE – 5
    LAST MAN STANDING – 10
    PRIVATE PRACTICE – 2 (-2)
    REVENGE – 14
    SUBURGATORY – 12
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 13
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 13
    THE MIDDLE – 14
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 13 (+3)
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 6 (-1)
    MODERN FAMILY – 9
    APARTMENT 23 – 11

    quote from CT [1.12]:
    Jeff: The stay at home and drink date. Always dangerous. Alcohol makes it hard to filter yourself.
    Jules: You’d make a pretty girl.
    Jeff: And we’re off!
    (first ever game of Penny Can begins three scenes later)

  • Ali

    BODY OF PROOF – 14 (+1)
    COUGAR TOWN – 9 (-1)
    THE RIVER – 0 (-3)ELIMINATED
    MISSING – 9
    SCANDAL – 11
    GCB – 14
    CASTLE – 5
    LAST MAN STANDING – 10
    PRIVATE PRACTICE – 0 (-2)ELIMINATED
    REVENGE – 14
    SUBURGATORY – 12
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 13
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 13
    THE MIDDLE – 17 (+3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 13
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 6
    MODERN FAMILY – 11 (+2)
    APARTMENT 23 – 11

  • bran

    BODY OF PROOF – 14
    COUGAR TOWN – 7 (-2)
    MISSING – 9
    SCANDAL – 11
    GCB – 17 (+3)
    CASTLE – 2 (-3)
    LAST MAN STANDING – 10
    REVENGE – 14
    SUBURGATORY – 12
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 13
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 13
    THE MIDDLE – 17
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 13
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 5 (-1)
    MODERN FAMILY – 13 (+2)
    APARTMENT 23 – 12 (+1)

  • Ryan

    BODY OF PROOF – 14
    COUGAR TOWN – 7
    MISSING – 8 (-1)
    SCANDAL – 11
    GCB – 17
    CASTLE – 5 (+3)
    LAST MAN STANDING – 10
    REVENGE – 16 (+2)
    SUBURGATORY – 12
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 13
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 13
    THE MIDDLE – 18 (+1)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 13
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 2 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 13
    APARTMENT 23 – 10 (-2)

  • Revenge

    BODY OF PROOF – 14
    COUGAR TOWN – 7
    MISSING – 8
    SCANDAL – 11
    GCB – 17
    CASTLE – 5
    LAST MAN STANDING – 9 (-1)
    REVENGE – 19 (+3)
    SUBURGATORY – 12
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 11 (-2)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 13
    THE MIDDLE – 15 (-3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 14 (+1)
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 2
    MODERN FAMILY – 13
    APARTMENT 23 – 12 (+2)

  • Krystal

    BODY OF PROOF – 13(-1)
    COUGAR TOWN – 11
    THE RIVER – 7
    MISSING – 9
    SCANDAL – 8
    GCB – 10
    CASTLE – 7
    LAST MAN STANDING – 10
    PRIVATE PRACTICE – 7
    REVENGE – 14(-2)
    SUBURGATORY – 12
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 15(-3)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 12(+1)
    THE MIDDLE – 13 (+3)
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 11
    MODERN FAMILY – 4(+2)
    APARTMENT 23 – 10

  • Kevin

    Last man standing should be in the certain to be renewed with the Green faces. not the more like to be renewed.

  • Revenge

    @ Krystal yours makes no sense
    Should that count? I don’t think so…

    DON’T COUNT KRYSTAL’S

  • Jude

    BODY OF PROOF – 14
    COUGAR TOWN – 10 (+3)
    MISSING – 8
    SCANDAL – 10 (-1)
    GCB – 14 (-3)
    CASTLE – 7 (+2)
    LAST MAN STANDING – 9 
    REVENGE – 19 
    SUBURGATORY – 12
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 11 
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 13
    THE MIDDLE – 15 
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 14 
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 2
    MODERN FAMILY – 14 (+1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 10 (-2)

  • jackie

    BODY OF PROOF – 14
    COUGAR TOWN – 13 (+3)
    MISSING – 8
    SCANDAL – 7 (-3)
    GCB – 14
    CASTLE – 7
    LAST MAN STANDING – 8 (-1)
    REVENGE – 17 (-2)
    SUBURGATORY – 12
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 13 (+2)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 13
    THE MIDDLE – 15
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 15 (+1)
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 2
    MODERN FAMILY – 14
    APARTMENT 23 – 10

  • michael

    BODY OF PROOF – 11 (-3)
    COUGAR TOWN – 11 (-2)
    MISSING – 9 (+1)
    SCANDAL – 7
    GCB – 14
    CASTLE – 7
    LAST MAN STANDING – 8
    REVENGE – 17
    SUBURGATORY – 12
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 12 (-1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 13
    THE MIDDLE – 17 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 15
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 2
    MODERN FAMILY – 17 (+3)
    APARTMENT 23 – 10

  • michael

    MY PREDICTION

    Renewed
    – Castle
    – GCB
    – Grey’s Anatomy
    – Happy Endings
    – The Middle
    – Last Man Standing
    – Modern Family
    – Once Upon A Time
    – Private Practice
    – Revenge
    – Suburgatory

    Cancelled
    – Body of Proof
    – Charlie’s Angels
    – Cougar Town
    – Desperate Housewives (final season)
    – Man Up
    – Missing
    – Pan Am
    – The River
    – Scandal
    – Work It

  • A…

    BODY OF PROOF – 9 (-2)
    COUGAR TOWN – 8 (-3)
    MISSING – 9
    SCANDAL – 7
    GCB – 14
    CASTLE – 7
    LAST MAN STANDING – 8
    REVENGE – 20 (+3)
    SUBURGATORY – 13 (+1)
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 12
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 13
    THE MIDDLE – 16 (-1)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 15
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 2
    MODERN FAMILY – 17
    APARTMENT 23 – 12 (+2)

  • rogerd

    BODY OF PROOF – 8 (-1)
    COUGAR TOWN – 10 (+2)
    MISSING – 9
    SCANDAL – 7
    GCB – 15 (+1)
    CASTLE – 7
    LAST MAN STANDING – 5 (-3)
    REVENGE – 20
    SUBURGATORY – 13
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 12
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 16 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 14 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 15
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 2
    MODERN FAMILY – 17
    APARTMENT 23 – 12

  • Irene

    BODY OF PROOF – 8
    COUGAR TOWN – 13 (+3)
    MISSING – 9
    SCANDAL – 7
    GCB – 12 (-3)
    CASTLE – 9 (+2)
    LAST MAN STANDING – 5
    REVENGE – 20
    SUBURGATORY – 13
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 12
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 16
    THE MIDDLE – 14
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 15
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 3 (+1)
    MODERN FAMILY – 16 (-1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 10 (-2)

  • june89

    BODY OF PROOF – 8
    COUGAR TOWN – 15 (+2)
    MISSING – 9
    SCANDAL – 7
    GCB – 15 (+3)
    CASTLE – 7 (-2)
    LAST MAN STANDING – 2 (-3)
    REVENGE – 20
    SUBURGATORY – 12 (-1)
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 12
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 17 (+1)
    THE MIDDLE – 14
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 15
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 3
    MODERN FAMILY – 16
    APARTMENT 23 – 10

  • rob60990

    BODY OF PROOF – 11 (+3)
    COUGAR TOWN – 15
    MISSING – 9
    SCANDAL – 6 (-1)
    GCB – 15
    CASTLE – 7
    LAST MAN STANDING – 0 (-2)
    REVENGE – 22 (+2)
    SUBURGATORY – 12
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 12
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 17
    THE MIDDLE – 15 (+1)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 15
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 0 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 16
    APARTMENT 23 – 10

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