ABC: 'Scandal' Starts As A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation; 'GCB' Now a "Toss Up" Too

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 10th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 8, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Body Of Proof :oops: 0.64
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.65
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
Missing :cry: :cry: 0.68
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
GCB :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.88
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.92
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.94
Revenge :) :) :) :) 1.00
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Desperate Housewives final season 1.03
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.27
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.05

-
Scandal's premiere episode ratings placed it squarely in the "toss up" for renewal or cancellation category, but intial predictions can change quickly based on later results. Stay tuned.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Rebecca

    Grey’s and LMS are voted out of the game, RIP.

  • jrh

    I like Revenge – But, I hate all the repeats and weeks it is not on.. THAT’S HOW YOU LOSE VIEWERS ABC… I think ABC’s programming stinks…

  • Andrew

    BODY OF PROOF – 11
    COUGAR TOWN – 15
    MISSING – 9
    SCANDAL – 6
    GCB – 14 (-1)
    CASTLE – 10 (+3)
    REVENGE – 22
    SUBURGATORY – 12
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 13 (+1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15 (-2)
    THE MIDDLE – 17 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 15
    MODERN FAMILY – 16
    APARTMENT 23 – 7 (-3)

  • Lizam

    BODY OF PROOF – 11
    COUGAR TOWN – 15
    MISSING – 9
    SCANDAL – 6
    GCB – 13 (-1)
    CASTLE – 11 (+1)
    REVENGE – 19 (-3)
    SUBURGATORY – 12
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 13
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15
    THE MIDDLE – 15 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 18 (+3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 16
    APARTMENT 23 – 9 (+2)

  • SJ

    ABC has an interesting situation with their dramas this season. Discounting Desperate Housewives, which is ending, they have four locks for renewal for next season: Grey’s Anatomy, Castle, Revenge and Once Upon a Time, four dead or near-dead dramas: Charlie’s Angels, Pan Am, The River and Missing and four bubble/still-showing-some-life dramas: GCB, Private Practice, Body of Proof and Scandal.

    Private Practice has done well in its first 17 outings this season. I think it’s earned a renewal regardless of how it does on Tuesdays. Thing is, a potential renewal would probably be for a shortened final season which would then get pushed to mid-season so a renewal should be given only if ABC thinks they can profit from what will almost certainly be sub-2 ratings.

    GCB has held fairly steady in the ratings since its debut episode. It’s got some buzz and the negative reviews from the first few episodes are now gone. GCB might get a Happy Endings-type renewal: so-so numbers, but high buzz factor. Plus, with a (hopefully) better lead-in than DH and a fall start, the show could grow in season 2.

    Body of Proof… Three weeks ago, I’d have put its renewal chances at 0%. It has significantly risen since then and none of the mid-season replacements have set the world alight. Right now I’m giving it 33%, or a one in three chance at getting renewed. It’s best bet? Hoping that ABC takes on scripted programming on Fridays again, at least while waiting for Shark Tank/WWYD to be ready for mid-season (a Malibu Country/Manzanis/Body of Proof block could be a strong one for Friday nights) or that ABC’s new pilots are so bad, they would want to have a known commodity on the back burner for when their schedule springs a leak. I still put its chances at keeping its Tuesday at 10 time slot in the fall at 0%.

    Scandal is very hard to gauge after only one episode. But, lowest rated drama premiere of the season + 10pm slot + mixed reviews doesn’t bode well for the series’ future, which currently makes Scandal the least likely of the four “bubblies” to score a renewal.

    As for the comedies, it’s pretty cut and dry: cancel Cougar Town, renew everything else (Happy Endings and Apartment 23 only for 13 episodes each).

  • Kim

    BODY OF PROOF – 10 (+2)
    COUGAR TOWN – 10
    THE RIVER – 10
    MISSING – 10
    SCANDAL – 10 (-1)
    GCB – 8
    CASTLE – 13 (+1)
    LAST MAN STANDING – 10
    PRIVATE PRACTICE – 10
    REVENGE – 7 (+3)
    SUBURGATORY – 10
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 10
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 10
    THE MIDDLE – 12 (-2)
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 9 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 11

  • Bright

    DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO @KIM’S, SHE CHANGED NUMBERS. MINES:

    BODY OF PROOF – 13 (+2)
    COUGAR TOWN – 15
    MISSING – 6 (-3)
    SCANDAL – 9 (+3)
    GCB – 13
    CASTLE – 9 (-2)
    REVENGE – 19
    SUBURGATORY – 13 (+1)
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 13
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15
    THE MIDDLE – 15
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 18
    MODERN FAMILY – 16
    APARTMENT 23 – 8 (-1)

  • Jelly

    BODY OF PROOF – 12 (-1)
    COUGAR TOWN – 13 (-2)
    MISSING – 8 (+2)
    SCANDAL – 9
    GCB – 13
    CASTLE – 9
    REVENGE – 22 (+3)
    SUBURGATORY – 13
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 10 (-3)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15
    THE MIDDLE – 15
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 18
    MODERN FAMILY – 16
    APARTMENT 23 – 9 (+1)

  • Grey.

    BODY OF PROOF – 12
    COUGAR TOWN – 13
    MISSING – 8
    SCANDAL – 9
    GCB – 13
    CASTLE – 6 (-3)
    REVENGE – 25 (+3)
    SUBURGATORY – 14 (+1)
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 8 (-2)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15
    THE MIDDLE – 15
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 17 (-1)
    MODERN FAMILY – 16
    APARTMENT 23 – 11 (+2)

  • tvfreak

    BODY OF PROOF – 12
    COUGAR TOWN – 13
    MISSING – 8
    SCANDAL – 9
    GCB – 11 (-2)
    CASTLE – 9 (+3)
    REVENGE – 22 (-3)
    SUBURGATORY – 14
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 7 (-1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15
    THE MIDDLE – 17 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 17
    MODERN FAMILY – 16
    APARTMENT 23 – 12 (+1)

    Eliminated:
    18. The River (4-11, 8:28pm)
    17. Private Practice (4-11, 8:28pm)
    16. Grey’s Anatomy (4-12, 9:31am)
    15. Last Man Standing (4-12, 9:31am)

    “Hey, you can’t use math. That’s cheating!”
    -Axl Heck, The Middle episode 3.20 “Get Your Business Done”

  • Nick

    This new Elimination Game is scaring me…
    RIP, LMS
    DIE, River!!!

    BODY OF PROOF – 14 (+2)
    COUGAR TOWN – 13
    MISSING – 8
    SCANDAL – 7 (-2)
    GCB – 11
    CASTLE – 9
    REVENGE – 22
    SUBURGATORY – 14
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 4 (-3)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15
    THE MIDDLE – 18 (+1)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 17
    MODERN FAMILY – 19 (+3)
    APARTMENT 23 – 11 (-1)

    Tough desision for me, as I watch ABC more than any other network.

  • Mari

    BODY OF PROOF – 13 (-1)
    COUGAR TOWN – 13
    MISSING – 5 (-3)
    SCANDAL – 5 (-2)
    GCB – 11
    CASTLE – 12 (+3)
    REVENGE – 22
    SUBURGATORY – 14
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 6 (+2)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15
    THE MIDDLE – 18
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 17
    MODERN FAMILY – 20 (+1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 11

  • MJDB

    Possible 2012-13 Primetime Schedule:

    Sunday:

    7:00-America’s Funniest Home Videos
    8:00-Once Upon a Time
    9:00-GCB
    10:00-New Drama

    Monday:

    8:00-Dancing With the Stars (2 Seasons)/The Bachelor
    10:00-Castle

    Tuesday:

    8:00-Last Man Standing
    8:30-New Comedy
    9:00-Dancing With the Stars (2 Seasons)/New Drama
    10:00-New Drama

    Wednesday:

    8:00-The Middle
    8:30-Suburgatory/Don’t Trust the B in Apartment 23
    9:00-Modern Family
    9:30-Happy Endings/New Comedy
    10:00-Revenge

    Thursday:

    8:00-New Drama
    9:00-Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00-Private Practice (Final Season)

    Friday:

    8:00-New Comedy/Shark Tank
    8:30-New Comedy/Shark Tank
    9:00-Primetime: What Would You Do?
    10:00-20/20

    Saturday:

    8:00-Movie
    9:00-Movie
    10:00-Drama Rerun

  • Mackenzie

    Although it was an expensive show to make, anyone think that ABC are second-guessing their decision to pull the plug on Desperate Housewives?

  • Nick

    @MJDB
    I have to point out that you are sticking to a schedule clearly not working for ABC. Recently, it has startes to completely revamp some parts of its schedule (just look at daytime). Also, in four years, they change their comedy block from a failing one on Fri @ 9 to a 2-day powerhouse with the best-rated comedy outside of CBS. For the first time in years, they put comedies on Tues.
    Here is a more probable schedule:

    Sun-
    OUAT
    new dramedy
    GCB

    Mon-
    DWTS/Bachelor
    Castle

    Tue-
    LMS
    new comedy
    DWTS/CT+APT23*
    new drama

    Wed-
    Middle
    Suburgatory
    MF
    new comedy
    Revenge

    Thu-
    New drama
    GA
    New drama

    Fri-
    Wipeout*
    Shark Tank
    PWWYD

    Sat
    Wipeout (R)
    20/20*

    wipeout will obviously become part of the fall schedule, as even ABC learns from its mistakes.
    20/20 is already doing good on Sat.
    Comedies after DWTS are just the risky thing ABC likes to do (a la GCB).
    ABC will continue airing new dramas in the Thu @8 slot, as it meeds an 8 pm slot for its new show, Beauty and the Beast ( it will be a family show and is almost certain to be picked up, as it is based on the Disney fairy tale (Disney owns ABC).

    This is a likely schedule for ABC.

  • Nick

    @Mackenzie,
    ABC’s decision to end DH was less due to the fact of not-terrific ratings than the creators’ feeling that the show was ready to end. A creator would much like their show to end than have it abruptly cancelled.

  • james

    BODY OF PROOF – 13
    COUGAR TOWN – 13
    MISSING –2 (-3)
    SCANDAL – 3 (-2)
    GCB – 14 (+3)
    CASTLE – 12
    REVENGE – 22
    SUBURGATORY – 14
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 5 (-1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15
    THE MIDDLE – 18
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 17
    MODERN FAMILY – 21 (+1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 13 (+2)

  • Mackenzie

    @Nick
    I read that Marc Cherry always wanted 9 seasons, and the contracts that the cast signed at the end of season 7 was committing them to an eighth season AND a ninth season (if there was to be a ninth)
    From what I have gathered, ABC were the ones who pulled the plug.

    Also in light of the less-than-stellar ratings of Pan Am and GCB, I wish Brothers & Sisters had been given a 6th season :(

  • Randy

    The ABC writers really need to be fired or something. The only new shows they got right are Revenge (but yet they took it off for a month – randomly), Once Upon a Time, and Last Man Standing. Seriously, who thought of Cougar Town, The River, Man Up, GCB??? And they should bring back a DISNEY movie every week like they used to have on a Saturday, or a Sunday.

  • Randy

    And Don’t Trust the … seems like a real winner too. Yeah right..

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures