ABC: 'Scandal' Starts As A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation; 'GCB' Now a "Toss Up" Too

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 10th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 8, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Body Of Proof :oops: 0.64
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.65
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
Missing :cry: :cry: 0.68
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
GCB :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.88
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.92
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.94
Revenge :) :) :) :) 1.00
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Desperate Housewives final season 1.03
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.27
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.05

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Scandal's premiere episode ratings placed it squarely in the "toss up" for renewal or cancellation category, but intial predictions can change quickly based on later results. Stay tuned.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Raykov

    BODY OF PROOF – 12 [-1]
    COUGAR TOWN – 13
    MISSING – 0 [-2]
    SCANDAL – 0 [-3]
    GCB – 14
    CASTLE – 12
    REVENGE – 22
    SUBURGATORY – 14
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 8 [+3]
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 17 [+2]
    THE MIDDLE – 18
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 18[+1]
    MODERN FAMILY – 21
    APARTMENT 23 – 13

  • Ronnie

    Body of proof – 13
    Cougar Town – 13
    Missing – 4 (+2)
    Scandal – 3
    GCB – 15 (+1)
    Castle – 12
    Revenge – 25 (+3)
    Suburgatory – 14
    Happy Endings – 3 (-2)
    Desperate Housewives – 14 (-1)
    The Middle – 18
    Once Upon A Time – 17
    Modern Family – 18 (-3)
    Apartment 23 – 13

  • Lizam

    IF GCB returns no way is it going to be on Sunday. Come on guys, I think ABC is smart enough to realize that people want more family entertainment from ABC on Sunday and not more night-time soaps.

    @Randy Apt 23 is a winner. Certainly better the other spring-time premieres.

  • Ronnie

    Disregard last entry updated before submited
    BOP-12
    Cougar Town-13
    Missing-2(+2)
    Scandal-1(+1)
    GCB-14
    Castle-12
    Revenge-25(+3)
    Suburgatory-14
    Happy Endings-6(-2)
    DH-16(-1)
    The Middle-18
    OUAT-18
    Modern Family-18(-3)
    Apartment 23-13

  • Nick

    @ Ronnie,
    Missing and Scandal have already hit 0. You cannot give them any more points. They are out of the competition.:-(

  • Anne

    Would something with standing please bring back PAN AM !!!

  • Amanda

    BOP-12
    Cougar Town-12 (-1)
    GCB-17 (+3)
    Castle-12
    Revenge-23 (-2)
    Suburgatory-14
    Happy Endings-3 (-3)
    DH-16
    The Middle-18
    OUAT-18
    Modern Family-17 (+1)
    Apartment 23-15 (+2)
    Missing and Scandal were already eliniates

  • Rebecca

    True. If it wasn’t clear before, once a show is down to zero points you can’t give it any more points to keep it in the game. Also make sure you’ve voted on six shows (3 up 1, 2 or 3 points, and 3 down 1, 2, or 3 points each). My turn:

    BOP – 12
    Cougar Town – 14 (+2)
    GCB – 18 (+1)
    Castle – 15 (+3)
    Revenge – 23
    Suburgatory – 11 (-3)
    Happy Endings – 3
    DH – 14 (-2)
    The Middle – 18
    OUAT – 18
    Modern Family – 17
    Apartment 23 – 14 (-1)

    quote from MF [1.19]:
    Jay: Claire likes to win. When she was 8 a little Girl Scout friend of hers bragged she could sell the most cookies. Damn if Claire didn’t walk the neighborhood til she got blisters on her feet and won by 10 boxes. Best part is: Claire wasn’t even a Girl Scout.

  • Lizam

    BOP – 12
    Cougar Town – 14 (+2)
    GCB – 16 (-2)
    Castle – 15
    Revenge – 22 (-1)
    Suburgatory – 11
    Happy Endings – 0 (-3)—-gone!
    DH – 14
    The Middle – 18
    OUAT – 20 (+2)
    Modern Family – 18 (+1)
    Apartment 23 – 17 (+3)

  • Bran

    BOP – 11 (-1)
    Cougar Town – 12 (-2)
    GCB – 19 (+3)
    Castle – 15
    Revenge – 22
    Suburgatory – 11
    DH – 14
    The Middle – 15 (-3)
    OUAT – 20
    Modern Family – 19 (+1)
    Apartment 23 – 19 (+2)

  • still good shows on tv

    BOP – 10 (-1)
    Cougar Town – 10 (-2)
    GCB – 19
    Castle – 15
    Revenge – 24 (+2)
    Suburgatory – 12 (+1)
    DH – 14
    The Middle – 18 (+3)
    OUAT – 20
    Modern Family – 19
    Apartment 23 – 16 (-3)

  • rob60990

    BOP – 10
    Cougar Town – 7 (-3)
    GCB – 19
    Castle – 15
    Revenge – 27 (+3)
    Suburgatory – 10 (-2)
    DH – 16 (+2)
    The Middle – 19 (+1)
    OUAT – 20
    Modern Family – 19
    Apartment 23 – 15 (-1)

  • Ronnie

    Sorry guys :( ill revote again shortly and that’s crazy bout missing and scandal their awesome

  • barb

    BOP – 10
    Cougar Town – 4 (-3)
    GCB – 22 (+3)
    Castle – 15
    Revenge – 27
    Suburgatory – 8 (-2)
    DH – 16
    The Middle – 18(-1)
    OUAT – 20
    Modern Family – 20 (+1)
    Apartment 23 – 17 (+2)

  • Ronnie

    BOP-10
    Cougar Town-2(-2)
    GCB-24(+2)
    Castle-14
    Revenge-30(+3)
    Suburgatory-9(+1)
    DH-15(-1)
    Middle-18
    OUAT-20
    Modern Family-17(-3)
    Apartment 23-17

  • Bright

    BOP-11 (+1)
    Cougar Town-5 (+3)
    GCB-24
    Castle-11 (-3)
    Revenge-30
    Suburgatory-11 (+2)
    DH-15
    Middle-18
    OUAT-19 (-1)
    Modern Family-17
    Apartment 23-15 (-2)

  • Jelly

    BOP-11
    Cougar Town-5
    GCB-21 (-3)
    Castle-11
    Revenge-33 (+3)
    Suburgatory-13 (+2)
    DH-15
    Middle-17 (-1)
    OUAT-17 (-2)
    Modern Family-17
    Apartment 23-16 (+1)

  • Revenge

    BOP-11
    Cougar Town-5
    GCB-21
    Castle-11
    Revenge-36 (+3)
    Suburgatory-14 (+1)
    DH-15
    Middle-14 (-3)
    OUAT-16 (-1)
    Modern Family-15 (-2)
    Apartment 23-18 (+2)

  • tvfreak

    BODY OF PROOF – 11
    COUGAR TOWN – 5
    GCB – 19 (-2)
    CASTLE – 14 (+3)
    REVENGE – 33 (-3)
    SUBURGATORY – 13 (-1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15
    THE MIDDLE – 15 (+1)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 16
    MODERN FAMILY – 17 (+2)
    APARTMENT 23 – 18

    Eliminated:
    18. The River (4-11, 8:28pm)
    17. Private Practice (4-11, 8:28pm)
    16. Grey’s Anatomy (4-12, 9:31am)
    15. Last Man Standing (4-12, 9:31am)
    14. Scandal (4-13, 5:47am)
    13. Missing (4-13, 5:47am)
    12. Happy Endings (4-13, 9:14am)

    “What? Like she’ll be the first politician to make a promise she can’t keep!”
    -Luke Dunphy, from Modern Family episode 3.19 “Election Day”

  • K-Fed

    BODY OF PROOF – 8 (-3)
    COUGAR TOWN – 5
    GCB – 17 (-2)
    CASTLE – 13 (-1)
    REVENGE – 36 (+3)
    SUBURGATORY – 13
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15
    THE MIDDLE – 15
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 17 (+1)
    MODERN FAMILY – 19 (+2)
    APARTMENT 23 – 18

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