ABC: 'Scandal' Starts As A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation; 'GCB' Now a "Toss Up" Too

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 10th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 8, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Body Of Proof :oops: 0.64
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.65
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
Missing :cry: :cry: 0.68
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
GCB :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.88
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.92
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.94
Revenge :) :) :) :) 1.00
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Desperate Housewives final season 1.03
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.27
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.05

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Scandal's premiere episode ratings placed it squarely in the "toss up" for renewal or cancellation category, but intial predictions can change quickly based on later results. Stay tuned.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Mari

    I’m not voting yet ’cause I didn’t hit the 24h, I’m just fixing the numbers that Ronnie posted at 3:16 PM, It should be 14 for Castle now.

    BODY OF PROOF – 8
    COUGAR TOWN – 5
    GCB – 17
    CASTLE – 14
    REVENGE – 36
    SUBURGATORY – 13
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15
    THE MIDDLE – 15
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 17
    MODERN FAMILY – 19
    APARTMENT 23 – 18

  • Nick

    BODY OF PROOF – 11 (+3)
    COUGAR TOWN – 7 (+2)
    GCB – 15 (-2)
    CASTLE – 13
    REVENGE – 35 (-1)
    SUBURGATORY – 14 (+1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15
    THE MIDDLE – 15
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 17
    MODERN FAMILY – 19
    APARTMENT 23 – 15 (-3)

    “Apologies don’t come easy to me.”
    ~Dr. Megan Hunt, Body of Proof, Episode 2.20, “Mind Games”

  • Nick

    Oops, change Castle to 14.

  • Jessica

    BODY OF PROOF – 11
    COUGAR TOWN – 4 (-3)
    GCB – 18 (+3)
    CASTLE – 13
    REVENGE – 33 (-2)
    SUBURGATORY – 13 (-1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15
    THE MIDDLE – 15
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 17
    MODERN FAMILY – 20 (+1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 17 (+2)

  • Doug

    I think that ABC needs to scale back DWTS to one cycle per season in order to mitigate the ratings slide (hopefully). They also need to sort out their comedies into family friendly and adult-oriented. I’d try something like this:

    Monday:
    8:00 New Drama
    9:00 New Drama
    10:00 Castle

    Tuesday:
    8:00 Suburgatory
    8:30 New Sitcom
    9:00 Apt 23
    9:30 Happy Endings
    10:00 New Drama

    Wednesday:
    8:00 The Middle
    8:30 Last Man Standing
    9:00 Modern Family
    9:30 New sitcom
    10:00 Revenge

    Thursday:
    8:00 New Drama
    9:00 GA
    10:00 Scandal or Private Practice (whichever shakes out)

    Friday:
    Same

    Sunday:
    8:00 OUAT
    9:00 New Drama
    10:00 GCB

    2 new sitcoms, 5 new dramas (which may be a little heavy for dramas). DWTS slides into to current timeslots in January. That way, dramas can get a straight run, and so can the Tuesday sitcoms, until they come back in March. Have a new season of The Bachelor on stand-by in case the Monday block doesn’t work. Reasoning: If DWTS Results is now at a 2.3, ABC could probably do similar numbers with comedies. I think that the upside is even greater – they could do extremely well with comedies, while the downside is probably around a 2.0. Monday is a bit riskier, but with DWTS now around a 2.8, the bar is not extremely high. Suburgatory, paired with the right comedy, could do mid 2′s to high 2′s. I also think that LMS would probably hold most, if not all, of The Middle’s audience. ABC also needs to air a family sitcom Wednesdays at 9:30pm – while I flove HE, and like Apt 23, they are clearly wrong for that timeslot.

  • Ginger

    Monday:
    8:00 Dancing with the Stars / Bachelor
    10:00 Castle

    Tuesday:
    8:00 Last Man Standing
    8:30 Malibu Country (new comedy)
    9:00 Dancing: Results / Apt 23 (new time)
    9:30 Dancing: Results / Happy Endings (new time)
    10:00 Private Practice

    Wednesday:
    8:00 The Middle
    8:30 Suburgatory
    9:00 Modern Family
    9:30 Counter Culture (new comedy)
    10:00 Mistresses (new drama)

    Thursday:
    8:00 Devious Maids (new drama)
    9:00 Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00 Revenge (new time)

    Friday:
    8:00 Shark Tank
    9:00 Scandal (new time)
    10PM 20/20

    Sunday:
    7:00 America’s Funniest Home Videos
    8:00 OUAT
    9:00 666 Park Avenue (new drama)
    10:00 GCB

    Midseason:
    Family Trap (new comedy)
    The Manzanis (new comedy)
    How To Live With Your Parents For The Rest of Your Life (new comedy)
    Americana (new drama)
    Gilded Lillys (new drama)
    Wipeout (returning reality)

  • Mari

    BODY OF PROOF – 9 (-2)
    COUGAR TOWN – 6 (+2)
    GCB – 18
    CASTLE – 17 (+3)
    REVENGE – 30 (-3)
    SUBURGATORY – 13
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15
    THE MIDDLE – 15
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 17
    MODERN FAMILY – 21 (+1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 16 (-1)

  • Nevid

    BODY OF PROOF – 6 (-3)
    COUGAR TOWN – 7 (+1)
    GCB – 19 (+1)
    CASTLE – 19 (+2)
    REVENGE – 33 (+3)
    SUBURGATORY – 16 (+3)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 14 (-1)
    THE MIDDLE – 14 (-1)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 18 (+1)
    MODERN FAMILY – 23 (+2)
    APARTMENT 23 – 18 (+2)

  • Nevid

    BODY OF PROOF – 8 (-1)
    COUGAR TOWN – 6
    GCB – 18
    CASTLE – 17
    REVENGE – 33 (+3)
    SUBURGATORY – 15 (+2)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 13 (-2)
    THE MIDDLE – 15
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 14 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 22 (+1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 16

  • KCatty

    Nevid voted too many times, so going off of Mari…

    BODY OF PROOF – 9 (-2)
    COUGAR TOWN – 3(-3)
    GCB – 19 (+1)
    CASTLE – 17
    REVENGE – 30
    SUBURGATORY – 16 (+3)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15
    THE MIDDLE – 13 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 20 (-1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 16

    Enjoyed Apt 23 as well.

  • KCatty

    Navid fixed, so…

    BODY OF PROOF – 8 (-1)
    COUGAR TOWN – 3 (-3)
    GCB – 19 (+1)
    CASTLE – 17
    REVENGE – 33
    SUBURGATORY – 18 (+3)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 13
    THE MIDDLE – 13 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 16 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 21 (-1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 16

  • Rebecca

    @KCatty
    Thanks for fixing. :-)

  • Amara

    BODY OF PROOF – 8 (-1)
    COUGAR TOWN – 3
    GCB – 16 (-3)
    CASTLE – 17
    REVENGE – 31 (-2)
    SUBURGATORY – 18
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 14 (+1)
    THE MIDDLE – 12(-1)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 18 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 21
    APARTMENT 23 – 19(+3)

  • Lizam

    I think ABC is going to go to choose 4 dramas and 6 comedies from there pilots this year to take to series. I also do think they are going to try out the 10pm comedy slot. Apt 23 is perfect example of a comedy that would do well in a 10pm slot.

    The 4 dramas I think are going to get picked up are:
    Last Resort
    666 Park Ave
    Devious Maids
    and either Scruples or Penoza

    I could see the 6 comedies as
    American Judy
    Family Trap
    Malibu Country
    Prairie Dogs
    The Smart One
    Mazanas or Awesometown

  • Rebecca

    Amara forgot to take the “(-1)” off BOP, but that’s not a biggie so I’ll correct it here with my vote:

    BODY OF PROOF – 5 (-3)
    COUGAR TOWN – 6 (+3)
    GCB – 17 (+1)
    CASTLE – 19 (+2)
    REVENGE – 29 (-2)
    SUBURGATORY – 17 (-1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 14
    THE MIDDLE – 12
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 18
    MODERN FAMILY – 21
    APARTMENT 23 – 19

    quote from CT [1.10]:
    Ellie: Is that Spin Class Boy?
    Laurie: Oh my G-d, he must be a jeans model for that cheesy store!
    Ellie: Or he loves his body and lives his life shirtless no matter what anything thinks. Like Matthew McConaughey.

  • mandy

    BODY OF PROOF – 5
    COUGAR TOWN – 9 (+3)
    GCB – 14 (-3)
    CASTLE – 21 (+2)
    REVENGE – 29
    SUBURGATORY – 16 (-1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 14
    THE MIDDLE – 13 (+1)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 18
    MODERN FAMILY – 21
    APARTMENT 23 – 17 (-2)

    Love Cougar Town! I don’t get why people don’t watch it..it’s NOT about cougars anymore, they even wanted to change the title to make it clear..

  • Alex

    BODY OF PROOF – 5
    COUGAR TOWN – 12 (+3)
    GCB- 14
    CASTLE- 15 (+1)
    REVENGE – 29
    SUBURGATORY – 15 (-1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 14
    THE MIDDLE – 10 (-3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 15 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 23 (+2)
    APT 23 – 15 (-2)

    Cougar Town is my favourite show, it isn’t about Cougars, people don’t give it a chance, including ABC. They had a solid average of just over 7 million viewers an episode first two years, enough to get it early renewal both years. Then ABC cut it from regular season, changed its time slot and refused to advertise for it. They own it and they are the ones who are killing its ratings. It is a great show, don’t knock it until you give it a chance. I feel like a lot of people discredit it before they even watch it. Seriously, amazing show, really funny and very addicting. Watch it.

  • Shaun Daily- Las Vegas

    I can see Gilded Lilys, Beauty and the Beast, Americana and either Scruples or Nashville making it to series.

  • Bran

    BODY OF PROOF – 4 (-1)
    COUGAR TOWN – 9 (-3)
    GCB- 17 (+3)
    CASTLE- 15 (+1)
    REVENGE – 27 (-2)
    SUBURGATORY – 15
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 14
    THE MIDDLE – 10
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 15
    MODERN FAMILY – 24 (+1)
    APT 23 – 17 (+2)
    Alex took -3 of 2 shows

  • Matthew

    BODY OF PROOF – 4
    COUGAR TOWN – 9
    GCB- 14 (-3)
    CASTLE- 13 (-2)
    REVENGE – 27
    SUBURGATORY – 15
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 14
    THE MIDDLE – 11 (+1)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 18 (+3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 26 (+2)
    APT 23 – 16 (-1)

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